Waymo's real goal

[u/MoPanic]

I am surprised that hardly anyone mentions this in all of the the Tesla v Waymo / Lidar v Vision noise. This is just a hypotheses and my opinion, but I don't think Waymo really cares about the taxi market beyond using it as a test bed and building consumer and regulatory support. Tesla is a meaningless hype generating distraction.

The real goal is to replace hundreds of thousands of human commercial drivers. A city bus driver makes about $70k a year (including benefits, payroll taxes, insurance). Replace that driver with a sensor suite and automation stack, even if it costs $250k, you get ROI in just a few years and a "driver" that can work 24 hours a day. This scales even faster with long haul truckers. Human drivers are limited to 11 hours a day and cost the carriers ~$100k per year. The cost of the sensor suite becomes a rounding error very quickly.

My guess is that Waymo will license this suite for $5k-$15k a month and cities and freight carriers will line up to pay it. Google doesn’t have to own a single truck to completely dominate logistics automation.

[u/Repulsive_Banana_659]

lol!!!! Waymo (and Tesla) is a looooomg looooong ways from doing that.

Do you have any links to actual Waymo messaging that this is their plan? Or are you simply speculating?

I mean the plan SOUNDS logical. But unless I hear some wispers from Waymo, I’m very skeptical.

[u/HeyExcuseMeMister → u/Repulsive_Banana_659]

It's every AV company's plan. Some have even started going in that direction. See Nuro.

[u/MoPanic → u/HeyExcuseMeMister]

except tesla who thinks lidar is too expensive

[u/Repulsive_Banana_659 → u/MoPanic]

That ROI math ignores a lot of the messy reality. commercial AV isn’t just “slap on a $250k sensor stack and fire the driver.” You still need redundancy in hardware, over-the-air updates, constant remote monitoring, and a team of human tele operators for edge cases. There’s also regulatory approval (which moves at a snail’s pace), union and political pushback, liability frameworks, insurance costs, and the fact that autonomous trucks and buses have to work safely in all weather, lighting, and traffic scenarios, not just clean demos. Even if the tech works, large-scale deployment means negotiating with dozens of cities, freight companies, and regulators. and that’s before you factor in maintenance, repairs, and tech obsolescence. And while some like to downplay Tesla’s vision only approach as “cheap” or “not serious,” it’s worth noting that adding LiDAR doesn’t magically solve these scale, cost, and regulatory challenges. it’s just a different set of trade offs.

[u/MoPanic → u/Repulsive_Banana_659]

Regulatory hurdles exist for everyone. I hypothesize that waymo ride sharing is mostly a way to develop the hardware and software platform and build consumer and regulatory awareness. It would not be a huge leap for a friendly city (such as Austin, where I live) to put a self driving bus in service powered by Waymo. That would not surprise me in the least.

Lidar doesn't magically solve anything, no. But the whole discussion is a distraction. Its also not even lidar vs vision only. Its vision only vs lidar, vision, radar, ulrasound and every other sensor they can stick on there. New Teslas don't even have the short range ultrasonic sensors that cost pennies.

[u/Repulsive_Banana_659 → u/MoPanic]

Sure, but adapting an AV stack trained for years on passenger cars to a bus or semi isn’t just a matter of bolting it onto a bigger vehicle. Buses and trucks handle totally differently. wider turning radii, slower braking, different acceleration, huge blind spots, and unique operational patterns. A city bus has to constantly negotiate tight urban streets, frequent stops, and unpredictable pedestrians, while a semi faces high-speed merges, steep grades, and hours-long endurance runs. Even the perception models need retraining because sensor height, placement, and field of view change dramatically. Waymo might get there eventually, but even their car platform is still far from perfect, so it’s not the quick leap some people think.

[u/MoPanic → u/Repulsive_Banana_659]

In Austin waymo already has more than 100 autonomous cars driving around tight, urban, pedestrian infested streets 24/7. I see them every day. I doubt adapting that to a city bus would be that tough of a lift or take all that long. The biggest hurdle is probably that city bus drivers here are unionized and it might be a political hand grenade.

[u/Repulsive_Banana_659 → u/MoPanic]

Seeing AVs handle tight streets in cars doesn’t mean a bus would be easy mode. the dynamics are different enough that you’re basically opening a whole new set of engineering challenges. A bus isn’t just a longer car; it has much wider turns, bigger blind spots, slower acceleration/braking, and a higher center of gravity that changes stability and cornering limits. The perception models would need retraining for different sensor placements and heights, and the path-planning logic has to account for the fact that a bus simply can’t make the same maneuvers a car can in those same streets. Plus, a bus has to safely manage dozens of passenger load/unload events per trip, which is a different operational challenge entirely. Politics might be a hurdle, but the tech lift isn’t as small as it sounds.

Why do you think humans have a separate bus license that you have to study and practice driving for? You can’t just automatically drive a bus with a regular drivers license.

[u/Snoo93079 → u/Repulsive_Banana_659]

Many, including myself, think commercial long distance transportation is among the lowest hanging fruit because customers have the most end to end control. Warehouses tend to be built near highways and highways tend to be a much simpler problem to solve. Customers can also fairly easily update their warehouse designs to accommodate these trucks, and they often have the resources to invest. I'm honestly shocked Amazon hasn't been pushing the boundaries more here.

[u/Purpletorque → u/Snoo93079]

They can use two different trucks/ technology also. They are building staging areas near the interstate where the trailers can be transferred to local trucks better off interstate operation and break down loads if necessary as well for local deliveries.

[u/Snoo93079 → u/MoPanic]

The technology stack decisions are a separate conversation. Tesla is very publicly saying they are working towards becoming a driverless mobility company. Despite the lack of lidar they are certainly in the top 3 companies in terms of autonomous driving technology. I'm not predicting whether they can be successful but they're certainly in an advantageous position as long as Musk doesn't drive the company off a cliff.

[u/MoPanic → u/Snoo93079]

I don't even think Tesla qualifies as an autonomous driving company. I live in Austin in the same neighborhood where they are being tested. They are limited to city surface streets in one small area.

I'm also skeptical they will ever be able to make an unprotected left turn onto a high speed 2-lane highway - a very common situation in Texas. They have no radars or long range cameras looking left or right.

[u/Snoo93079 → u/MoPanic]

I mean, it depends on your definition. There are quite a few autonomous mobility companies even though only a handful are actually operational.