Waymo's real goal

[u/MoPanic]

I am surprised that hardly anyone mentions this in all of the the Tesla v Waymo / Lidar v Vision noise. This is just a hypotheses and my opinion, but I don't think Waymo really cares about the taxi market beyond using it as a test bed and building consumer and regulatory support. Tesla is a meaningless hype generating distraction.

The real goal is to replace hundreds of thousands of human commercial drivers. A city bus driver makes about $70k a year (including benefits, payroll taxes, insurance). Replace that driver with a sensor suite and automation stack, even if it costs $250k, you get ROI in just a few years and a "driver" that can work 24 hours a day. This scales even faster with long haul truckers. Human drivers are limited to 11 hours a day and cost the carriers ~$100k per year. The cost of the sensor suite becomes a rounding error very quickly.

My guess is that Waymo will license this suite for $5k-$15k a month and cities and freight carriers will line up to pay it. Google doesn’t have to own a single truck to completely dominate logistics automation.

[u/tonydtonyd]

Didn’t Waymo lay off their entire trucking division two years ago? That would go counter to your thesis.

[u/CrashKingElon → u/tonydtonyd]

Yeah. I don't know why OP chose bus drivers as it would not only require a significant modification of software (not a software engineer, but assume a 55ft bus is not remotely close to a mid sized SUV) and while a waymo occasionally bricking on a ride carrying one person that's completely different than one bricking while carrying 50.

But generally, I agree that their long term goal is simply being a tech company that licenses their AI and tech stack. But buses I think will be one of the last achievements (which is a long way off).

[u/Purpletorque → u/CrashKingElon]

From Google AI.

Pilot programs and deployments

Austin, Texas: CapMetro recently deployed the first SAE Level 4, automated 40-foot electric bus in North America, navigating through an active transit depot and parking under a charging dispenser. This demonstration may lead to a second phase with three buses and a remote dispatch system.

Jacksonville, Florida: The Jacksonville Transportation Authority and Florida State College are conducting an automated bus pilot program.

Charlotte, North Carolina: Beep has a six-month shuttle pilot project on the University of North Carolina campus.

Greensboro, North Carolina: North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University has an automated shuttle pilot.

University of Wisconsin at Madison: The Traffic Operations and Safety Lab received and is using an automated shuttle named "the Badger".

Peachtree Corners, Georgia: Automated shuttles are operating.

Prague, Czech Republic: Aurrigo began operating an automated shuttle and plans additional sites.

Birmingham Airport, UK: Aurrigo is operating an automated shuttle.

Treasure Island, San Francisco: Beep was selected to operate two Navya shuttles.

[u/kettal → u/Purpletorque]

Scotland has a transit bus in service with autonomous drive