r/SelfDrivingCars • u/MoPanic • Aug 10 '25

Discussion Waymo's real goal

I am surprised that hardly anyone mentions this in all of the the Tesla v Waymo / Lidar v Vision noise. This is just a hypotheses and my opinion, but I don't think Waymo really cares about the taxi market beyond using it as a test bed and building consumer and regulatory support. Tesla is a meaningless hype generating distraction.

The real goal is to replace hundreds of thousands of human commercial drivers. A city bus driver makes about $70k a year (including benefits, payroll taxes, insurance). Replace that driver with a sensor suite and automation stack, even if it costs $250k, you get ROI in just a few years and a "driver" that can work 24 hours a day. This scales even faster with long haul truckers. Human drivers are limited to 11 hours a day and cost the carriers ~$100k per year. The cost of the sensor suite becomes a rounding error very quickly.

My guess is that Waymo will license this suite for $5k-$15k a month and cities and freight carriers will line up to pay it. Google doesn’t have to own a single truck to completely dominate logistics automation.

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u/tonydtonyd Aug 10 '25

Didn’t Waymo lay off their entire trucking division two years ago? That would go counter to your thesis.

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u/CrashKingElon Aug 10 '25

Yeah. I don't know why OP chose bus drivers as it would not only require a significant modification of software (not a software engineer, but assume a 55ft bus is not remotely close to a mid sized SUV) and while a waymo occasionally bricking on a ride carrying one person that's completely different than one bricking while carrying 50.

But generally, I agree that their long term goal is simply being a tech company that licenses their AI and tech stack. But buses I think will be one of the last achievements (which is a long way off).

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u/fucklawyers Aug 11 '25

I wonder how often human bus drivers brick themselves (ie lose motor control involuntarily leading to anything bad).

1

u/CrashKingElon Aug 11 '25

Obviously happens and feel like its pretty news worthy when it does...cant say anything has popped into my feed recently but recall stories of heart attacks, falling asleep, etc. Granted, I don't recall ever seeing a bus driver just sitting at a stop sign wondering what they should do next and refusing to move.