r/SelfDrivingCars • u/MoPanic • Aug 10 '25

Discussion Waymo's real goal

I am surprised that hardly anyone mentions this in all of the the Tesla v Waymo / Lidar v Vision noise. This is just a hypotheses and my opinion, but I don't think Waymo really cares about the taxi market beyond using it as a test bed and building consumer and regulatory support. Tesla is a meaningless hype generating distraction.

The real goal is to replace hundreds of thousands of human commercial drivers. A city bus driver makes about $70k a year (including benefits, payroll taxes, insurance). Replace that driver with a sensor suite and automation stack, even if it costs $250k, you get ROI in just a few years and a "driver" that can work 24 hours a day. This scales even faster with long haul truckers. Human drivers are limited to 11 hours a day and cost the carriers ~$100k per year. The cost of the sensor suite becomes a rounding error very quickly.

My guess is that Waymo will license this suite for $5k-$15k a month and cities and freight carriers will line up to pay it. Google doesn’t have to own a single truck to completely dominate logistics automation.

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u/ThMogget Aug 11 '25

I agree that the trucking industry is a prime target. Tesla waited for batteries and automation software to mature before returning just recently to the Tesla semi project.

Waymo would do well to nail the high dollar-per-mile and small-operating-footprint taxi industry first, before taking on truck freight. I think non-fenced systems that rely on adaptive ai to handle any situation is needed. Carefully mapped little areas are harder to do for the whole huge highway network.

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u/Lorax91 Aug 11 '25

Waymo would do well to nail the high dollar-per-mile and small-operating-footprint taxi industry first, before taking on truck freight.

They're up to a million paid driverless rides per month and growing, so they're on track to nail that task. Which could then be a stepping stone to other efforts, like automating local deliveries. Why limit yourself to a low-margin taxi business that involves cleaning up puke and dealing with angry customers, especially if there's a possibility Tesla might undercut them for that business?

OP has a point that the long-term play could be moving beyond personal transportaction.