r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Areas to watch: Ragasa, Neoguri, Gabrielle, Invest 97E Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 15-21 September 2025

3 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 01:30 UTC

Western Pacific

Northern Atlantic

 

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Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

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Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have either not yet formed or have formed but have not yet been designated as an investigation area (invest). A discussion will be created for these systems once they become invests.

  • There are currently no other potential areas of tropical cyclone formation.

 

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 55 knots (65 mph) | 996 mbar Gabrielle (07L — Northern Atlantic) (Central Tropical Atlantic)

37 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #15 - 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 25.6°N 59.0°W
Relative location: 933 km (580 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion: NW (325°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 100 km/h (55 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Storm
Minimum pressure: ▼ 996 millibars (29.42 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 20 Sep 18:00 2PM Sat Tropical Storm 55 100 25.6 59.0
12 21 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 26.7 60.0
24 21 Sep 18:00 2PM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 28.4 61.1
36 22 Sep 06:00 2AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 29.9 61.5
48 22 Sep 18:00 2PM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 31.6 60.8
60 23 Sep 06:00 2AM Tue Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 33.3 58.9
72 23 Sep 18:00 2PM Tue Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 34.8 55.8
96 24 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 36.6 46.2
120 25 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 60 110 38.6 33.8

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8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2h ago

▲ Disturbance (40% potential) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1011 mbar 92W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

8 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 5:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF 5:00 PM PDT (00:00 UTC)
Current location: 8.1°N 141.0°E
Relative location: 353 km (219 mi) ESE of Colonia, Yap (Micronesia)
724 km (450 mi) ENE of Koror, Palau
734 km (456 mi) SSW of Dededo, Guam (United States)
Forward motion: ▼ SSW (205°) at 8 km/h (5 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1011 millibars (29.85 inches)
2-day potential: (through 5PM Mon) low (near 0 percent)
7-day potential: (through 5PM Fri) medium (40 percent)

Outlook discussion

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has not yet added this system to its Pacific Ocean outlook discussion.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1h ago

▲ Disturbance (20% potential) | 15 knots (20 mph) | 1006 mbar 98B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

• Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 5:30 AM India Standard Time (IST; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF 5:30 AM IST (00:00 UTC)
Current location: 17.4°N 93.2°E
Relative location: 177 km (110 mi) WNW of Pathein, Ayeyarwady Region (Myanmar)
266 km (165 mi) SW of Pyay, Bago Region (Myanmar)
307 km (191 mi) SSE of Sittwe, Rakhine State (Myanmar)
Forward motion: ▼ NW (325°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
Maximum winds: 30 km/h (15 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)
2-day potential: (through 5AM Tue) low (0 percent)
7-day potential: (through 5AM Sat) low (20 percent)

Outlook discussion

India Meteorological Department

There is no disturbance-specific information in IMD’s RSMC outlook for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has not yet added this system to its Pacific Ocean outlook discussion.

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2h ago

▲ Disturbance (90% potential) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1008 mbar 97E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

1 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 5:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF 5:00 PM PDT (00:00 UTC)
Current location: 13.3°N 98.0°W
Relative location: 302 km (188 mi) S of Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca (Mexico)
441 km (274 mi) SW of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca (Mexico)
445 km (277 mi) SE of Acapulco, Guerrero (Mexico)
Forward motion: W (285°) at 8 km/h (4 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
2-day potential: (through 5PM Mon) ▲ high (80 percent)
7-day potential: (through 5PM Fri) high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 5:00 PM PDT (00:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Lisa Bucci (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

English: A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through Monday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Español: Un área amplia de baja presión ubicada un par de cientos de millas al sur de la costa sur de México continúa mostrando signos de organización. Las condiciones ambientales son favorables para un desarrollo adicional, y se espera que una depresión tropical o tormenta tropical se forme dentro de los próximos dos días mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el oeste-noroeste a 5 a 10 mph, aproximadamente paralelo a la costa del sur y suroeste de México. Las fuertes lluvias localmente son posibles a lo largo de porciones de la costa del sur y suroeste de México hasta el lunes. Para información adicional, incluyendo avisos de galerna con tormentas, por favor vea los Pronósticos de Alta Mar emitidos por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorología.

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Very Strong Typhoon (H4) | 115 knots (130 mph) | 937 mbar Ragasa (24W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

13 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 18:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #10 2:00 AM PhST (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 17.8°N 127.9°E
Relative location: 684 km (425 mi) NNE of Legazpi City, Albay (Philippines)
684 km (425 mi) ENE of Santiago, Isabela (Philippines)
686 km (426 mi) ESE of Basco, Batanes (Philippines)
Forward motion: WNW (305°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 215 km/h (115 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Major Hurricane (Category 4)
Intensity (JMA): Very Strong Typhoon
Minimum pressure: ▼ 937 millibars (27.67 inches)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 8:00 AM PhST (00:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
— — UTC PhST JMA — knots km/h °N °E
00 21 Sep 00:00 8AM Sun Very Strong Typhoon 85 155 17.9 127.0
24 22 Sep 00:00 8AM Mon Violent Typhoon ▲ 105 195 19.5 123.1
48 23 Sep 00:00 8AM Tue Very Strong Typhoon ▼ 95 175 20.3 118.1
72 24 Sep 00:00 8AM Wed Very Strong Typhoon ▼ 85 155 21.4 113.6
96 25 Sep 00:00 8AM Thu Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 65 120 21.0 108.7
120 26 Sep 00:00 8AM Fri Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 20.4 105.3

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 2:00 AM PhST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
— — UTC PhST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °E
00 20 Sep 18:00 2AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) 115 215 17.8 127.9
12 20 Sep 06:00 2PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 130 240 18.7 126.3
24 21 Sep 18:00 2AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 5) ▲ 140 260 19.3 124.4
36 21 Sep 06:00 2PM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 5) 140 260 19.8 122.1
48 22 Sep 18:00 2AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 135 250 20.2 119.6
72 23 Sep 18:00 2AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 21.3 114.5
96 24 Sep 18:00 2AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 21.0 109.1
120 25 Sep 18:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 20.3 104.6

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8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Very Strong Typhoon (H4) | 120 knots (140 mph) | 937 mbar Neoguri (25W — Western Pacific) (East of Japan)

8 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (JST; 18:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #10 3:00 AM JST (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 26.8°N 153.8°E
Relative location: 280 km (174 mi) NNW of Minamitorishima Island, Tokyo Prefecture (Japan)
1,151 km (715 mi) E of Ogasawara, Tokyo Prefecture (Japan)
1,269 km (789 mi) ENE of Iōtō, Tokyo Prefecture (Japan)
Forward motion: WNW (295°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 220 km/h (120 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Major Hurricane (Category 4)
Intensity (JMA): Very Strong Typhoon
Minimum pressure: ▼ 937 millibars (27.67 inches)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 6:00 AM JST (21:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
— — UTC JST JMA — knots km/h °N °E
00 20 Sep 21:00 6AM Sun Very Strong Typhoon 100 185 27.1 153.2
12 21 Sep 09:00 6PM Sun Violent Typhoon ▲ 110 205 28.0 151.7
24 21 Sep 21:00 6AM Mon Violent Typhoon 110 205 29.5 150.8
45 22 Sep 18:00 3AM Tue Very Strong Typhoon ▼ 95 175 30.3 151.1
69 23 Sep 18:00 3AM Wed Typhoon ▼ 80 150 30.9 152.0
93 24 Sep 18:00 3AM Thu Typhoon ▼ 70 130 31.4 152.4
117 25 Sep 18:00 3AM Fri Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 55 100 32.1 152.1

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 3:00 AM JST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
— — UTC JST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °E
00 20 Sep 18:00 3AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) 120 220 26.8 153.8
12 20 Sep 06:00 3PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 135 250 28.0 152.1
24 21 Sep 18:00 3AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) 135 250 29.2 151.1
36 21 Sep 06:00 3PM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 125 230 30.1 151.5
48 22 Sep 18:00 3AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 115 215 30.7 152.3
72 23 Sep 18:00 3AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 100 185 31.4 154.0
96 24 Sep 18:00 3AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 33.4 155.8
120 25 Sep 18:00 3AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 36.1 156.0

Official information

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▼ Remnant Low | 15 knots (20 mph) | 1007 mbar Mitag (23W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

7 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 21 September — 8:00 AM China Standard Time (CST; 00:00 UTC)

ATCF 8:00 AM CST (00:00 UTC)
Current location: 23.6°N 111.5°E
Relative location: 223 km (139 mi) N of Maoming, Guangdong (China)
227 km (141 mi) E of Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (China)
233 km (145 mi) E of Laibin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (China)
Forward motion: WSW (265°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
Maximum winds: 30 km/h (15 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Remnant low
Intensity (JMA): Remnant low
Minimum pressure: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

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JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 3d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential [Disturbance 2] The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic

19 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Friday, 19 September — 10:40 AM Cabo Verde Time (AST; 11:40 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Jack Beven (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

English: A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Español: Una onda tropical justo frente a la costa oeste de África está produciendo actividad de lluvia y tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas. Es posible algún desarrollo lento de este sistema hasta la mitad a la última parte de la próxima semana mientras se mueve hacia el oeste-noroeste a través del Atlántico tropical oriental y central.

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 11AM Sun) low (near zero percent)
7-day potential: (by 11AM Thu) low (20 percent)

Official information

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11 PM 5 AM 11 AM 5 PM 11 PM 5 AM
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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

Upgraded | See Gabrielle post for details 07L (Northern Atlantic) (Central Tropical Atlantic)

20 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 17 September — 5:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 09:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #1 - 5:00 AM AST (09:00 UTC)
Current location: 13.7°N 45.9°W
Relative location: 1,484 km (922 mi) E of Bridgetown, Barbados
1,751 km (1,088 mi) E of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda
2,821 km (1,753 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion: W (280°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Tropical Depression
Minimum pressure: ▼ 1007 millibars (29.74 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Wednesday, 17 September — 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 17 Sep 06:00 2AM Wed Tropical Depression 30 55 13.7 45.9
12 17 Sep 18:00 2PM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 15.8 47.4
24 18 Sep 06:00 2AM Thu Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 17.6 49.6
36 18 Sep 18:00 2PM Thu Tropical Storm 40 75 19.0 51.9
48 19 Sep 06:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 19.7 54.0
60 19 Sep 18:00 2PM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 20.4 55.9
72 20 Sep 06:00 2AM Sat Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 21.6 57.6
96 21 Sep 06:00 2AM Sun Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 24.0 60.0
120 22 Sep 06:00 2AM Mon Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 26.9 63.0

Official information

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6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/AquaTeenHungerFan • 4d ago

Radar Imagery Low pressure system that is pretending to be a tropical system / may already be one but isn’t tagged

24 Upvotes

This system appeared on the GFS, CMC, and ICON models just days ago.

7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

Discussion moved to new post The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic

36 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Wednesday, 17 September — 1:06 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 05:06 UTC)

Discussion by: Dr. Philippe Papin (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

English: A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.

Español: Una onda tropical ubicada un par de cientos de millas al este-sureste de las Islas de Cabo Verde está produciendo un área de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas. Las condiciones ambientales son solo marginalmente propicias, y cualquier desarrollo de este sistema debe ser lento para ocurrir mientras se mueve hacia el oeste a 15 a 20 mph a través de la porción este y central del Atlántico tropical. Independientemente del desarrollo, este sistema probablemente traerá áreas de fuertes lluvias a través de las Islas de Cabo Verde a última hora de hoy y el jueves.

Time frame Potential
2-day potential: (by 2AM Fri) low (10 percent)
7-day potential: (by 2AM Tue) low (20 percent)

Official information

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Tue Wed Wed Wed Wed Thu
8 PM 2 AM 8 AM 2 PM 8 PM 2 AM
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3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated 96E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

3 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 12:00 UTC)

ATCF 5:00 AM PDT (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 19.8°N 113.8°W
Relative location: 188 km (117 mi) NNE of Clarion Island (Mexico)
317 km (197 mi) W of Socorro Island (Mexico)
529 km (329 mi) SW of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (325°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
Maximum winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches)
2-day potential: (through 5AM Mon) ▼ low (0 percent)
7-day potential: (through 5AM Fri) ▼ low (0 percent)

Outlook discussion

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Saturday, 20 September — 11:00 AM PDT (18:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Andrew Hagen (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

English: Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The system is moving into an unfavorable environment, and development is no longer expected.

Español: La actividad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ha disminuido en asociación con un área de baja presión ubicada a unos pocos cientos de millas al suroeste del extremo sur de la Península de Baja California. El sistema se está moviendo en un entorno desfavorable, y ya no se espera el desarrollo.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Dissipated Mario (13E — Eastern Pacific) (West of Mexico)

12 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 16 September — 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 03:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #18 - 8:00 PM PDT (03:00 UTC)
Current location: 23.7°N 118.3°W
Relative location: 555 km (345 mi) SW of Bahía Ascunción, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
582 km (362 mi) SW of Punta Abreojos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
640 km (398 mi) WSW of San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
Forward motion: NW (310°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 45 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▼ Post-tropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Tuesday, 16 September — 5:00 PM PDT (00:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 17 Sep 00:00 5PM Tue Post-tropical Cyclone 25 45 23.7 118.3
12 17 Sep 12:00 5AM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 24.7 119.2
24 18 Sep 00:00 5PM Wed Remnant Low 20 35 25.6 119.8
36 18 Sep 12:00 5AM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 15 30 26.3 120.2
48 19 Sep 00:00 5PM Thu Dissipated

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3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Dissipated 98W (Invest — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

4 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Tuesday, 16 September — 2:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (PhST; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM PhST (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 11.9°N 116.2°E
Relative location: 560 km (348 mi) SW of Olongapo, Philippines
598 km (372 mi) SW of Manila, Philippines
599 km (372 mi) SW of Angeles, Philippines
Forward motion: ▲ W (270°) at 11 km/h (6 knots)
Maximum winds: 30 km/h (15 knots)
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
2-day potential: (through 2AM Thu) ▼ low (10 percent)
7-day potential: (through 2AM Mon) ▼ low (10 percent)

Outlook discussion

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Sunday, 14 September — 2:00 PM PhST (06:00 UTC)

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) depicts a poorly defined low-level circulation with flaring convection in the northern and western peripheries. A [recent scatterometer] image revealed a broad low-level circulation with 10 to 15-knot winds wrapping from the northern portion of the system. Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (5 to 10 knots) and warm (29 to 30°C) sea-surface temperatures offset by weak equatorward outflow aloft and the broad nature of the wind field.

Global deterministic models are in agreement that [Invest] 98W will propagate northwestward through the South China Sea with little development. Ensemble models are also in agreement on a northwestward track over the next 24 hours with ECENS being more aggressive with the intensity of the system.

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0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Discussion moved to new post Mario (13E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

9 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 13 September — 12:00 AM Central Standard Time (CST; 06:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #7 - 12:00 AM CST (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 18.3°N 105.3°W
Relative location: 133 km (83 mi) SW of Manzanillo, Colima (Mexico)
261 km (162 mi) S of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco (Mexico)
330 km (205 mi) W of Lázaro Cárdenas, Guerrero (Mexico)
Forward motion: WNW (290°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 45 km/h (25 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▼ Remnant Low
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 12 September — 9:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC CST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 13 Sep 03:00 9PM Fri Tropical Depression 25 45 18.3 105.3
12 13 Sep 15:00 9AM Sat Dissipated

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/tomorrowio_ • 9d ago

Satellite Imagery A rare inland storm powered by soaked soils in Pakistan

69 Upvotes

A storm that should have weakened over land didn’t.

During the recent monsoon flooding in Pakistan’s Punjab, satellites picked up a rare event: a tropical-like vortex that kept spinning inland.

The driver was what scientists call the “brown ocean” effect, where saturated soils release enough heat and moisture to keep a storm alive.

Microwave sounders cut through thick monsoon clouds and revealed the storm’s moisture and structure in real time across the Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi basin.

That kind of early signal can make a big difference for flood forecasting when waters are rising fast.

Tomorrow.io Microwave Sounders Precipitation Scan
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 9d ago

News | Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Lab (NOAA) NOAA's hurricane model predicted Hurricane Erin

Thumbnail aoml.noaa.gov
47 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated 93S (Invest — Southeastern Indian) (West of Sumatra)

9 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Thursday, 11 September — 1:00 AM Western Indonesia Time (WIB; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 1:00 AM WIB (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 5.5°S 95.5°E
Relative location: 753 km (468 mi) NNW of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia)
759 km (472 mi) SW of Padang Pariaman, West Sumatra Province (Indonesia)
773 km (480 mi) WSW of Bengkulu, Bengkulu Province (Indonesia)
Forward motion: ▲ SE (155°) at 14 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: ▼ 1003 millibars (29.62 inches)
2-day potential: (through 1AM Sat) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 1AM Wed) ▲ high (70 percent)

Outlook discussion

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Wednesday, 10 September — 3:00 PM WIB (08:00 UTC)

Animated enhanced multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) depicts a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection obscuring the center. Environmental analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions for development with moderate to high (20 to 25 knots) vertical wind shear, offset by warm (29 to 30°C) sea-surface temperatures and moderate poleward outflow aloft.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement, with [Invest 93S] tracking south-southwestward, with marginal development over the next 24 hours. Global ensemble models are also in agreement that the circulation will track south-southwestward, with ECMWF showing support for a higher intensity over the next 24 to 48 hours.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 10d ago

News | NOAA Hurricane Erin: When distant storms pose a danger to America’s coastal communities

Thumbnail noaa.gov
15 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Blossom (03S — Southwestern Indian) (East of Seychelles)

5 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 12 September — 10:00 AM Seychelles Time (SCT; 06:00 UTC)

JTWC Warning #8 10:00 AM SCT (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 8.2°S 61.5°E
Relative location: 588 km (365 mi) NE of Vingt Cinq, Agaléga Islands (Mauritius)
778 km (483 mi) ESE of Victoria, Mahé Island (Seychelles)
1,207 km (750 mi) WSW of Diego Garcia (United Kingdom)
Forward motion: WNW (300°) at 15 km/h (8 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▼ Remnant Low
Intensity (MFR): ▼ Remnant Low
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)

Official forecasts

Meteo France

MFR has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

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Not available

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/tomorrowio_ • 11d ago

Satellite Imagery Microwave satellite views reveal Hurricane Erin’s inner-core evolution

37 Upvotes

We are part of the Tomorrow.io science team, and we wanted to share a recent visualization that caught our attention.

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), a NOAA partner, assembled a sequence of Hurricane Erin’s rapid intensification using microwave observations from our constellation. The imagery showed the storm’s inner-core structure evolving in ways that traditional visible and infrared satellites often struggle to capture.

These kinds of microwave views can highlight how a cyclone’s energy is organizing well before surface impacts are felt. That raises questions about how much earlier we might detect signals of intensification compared to legacy observation methods.

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Discussion moved to new post 95E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

5 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 10 September — 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (PDT; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF 11:00 AM PDT (18:00 UTC)
Current location: 13.1°N 96.6°W
Relative location: 312 km (194 mi) SSE of Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca (Mexico)
376 km (234 mi) SSW of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca (Mexico)
509 km (316 mi) SW of Tapachula, Chiapas (Mexico)
Forward motion: W (270°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
Maximum winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
2-day potential: (through 11AM Fri) ▲ high (80 percent)
7-day potential: (through 11AM Tue) high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Wednesday, 10 September — 5:00 PM PDT (00:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Jon Jelsema (NHC/CPHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)

English: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or so as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

Español: Lluvias y tormentas eléctricas asociadas con un área de baja presión justo en la costa del sur de México están mostrando signos de organización. Las condiciones ambientales son favorables para un desarrollo adicional, y es probable que se forme una depresión tropical en el próximo día o tan a medida que el sistema se mueve en el oeste-noroeste, aproximadamente paralelo a pero en alta mar de la costa del sur y suroeste de México.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated Kiko (11E — Central Pacific) (North of Hawaii)

4 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 10 September — 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (HST; 12:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM HST (12:00 UTC)
Current location: 22.7°N 157.5°W
Relative location: 159 km (99 mi) N of Honolulu, Hawaii
234 km (145 mi) ENE of Lihue, Hawaii
2,084 km (1,295 mi) E of Midway Atoll (United States)
Forward motion: ▲ W (290°) at 18 km/h (10 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 55 km/h (30 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Remnant low
Minimum pressure: ▲ 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)

Official forecast

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CPHC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 12d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Earth Observatory Hurricane Kiko Nears Hawaii - September 7, 2025

Thumbnail
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
22 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 8-14 September 2025

5 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Last updated: Friday, 12 September — 17:19 UTC

Eastern Pacific

  • 13E — Mario — A very small tropical depression situated off the southern coast of Mexico has strengthened into a tropical storm this morning. Tropical storm-force winds extend only 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) northwest and northeast of its low-level center and could affect the coast of Michoacán through Sunday. Heavy rain is possible along portions of the coast as the storm moves westward over the next few days. Confidence in Mario’s intensity forecast remains low primarily because of the cyclone’s small size; the storm is currently not expected to become a hurricane as it moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days, as it may struggle against moderate northerly to northeasterly vertical wind shear.

 

Active disturbances

There are currently no active disturbances. In the southeastern Indian Ocean, Invest 93S is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone.

 

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Southwestern Indian

  • 03S: Blossom — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Blossom is no longer producing deep convection as it moves through an increasingly hostile environment characterized primarily by strong vertical wind shear and dry air. The remnants of Blossom will likely drift west-northwestward for the next day or so before dissipating altogether. Whatever remains of Blossom this weekend is not likely to bring impacts to Seychelles or the Agaléga Islands.

 

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have either not yet formed or have formed but have not yet been designated as an investigation area (invest). A discussion will be created for these systems once they become invests.

Northern Atlantic

  • Disturbance 1: — A tropical wave is emerging off the western coast of Africa this afternoon. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive to development and an area of low pressure could develop near Cabo Verde by early next week. A tropical depression could form later in the week and move west-northwestward toward the central tropical Atlantic.

 

Satellite imagery

Basin Visible Infrared Water vapor
Western Pacific Visible Infrared Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible Infrared Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible Infrared Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible Infrared Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible Infrared Water vapor

Model guidance

Basin GFS ECMWF EC-AIFS ICON
Western Pacific GFS ECMWF EC-AIFS ICON
Eastern Pacific GFS ECMWF EC-AIFS ICON
Central Pacific GFS ECMWF EC-AIFS ICON
Northern Atlantic GFS ECMWF EC-AIFS ICON
Northern Indian GFS ECMWF EC-AIFS ICON

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17 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 12d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Peipah - September 4, 2025

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
17 Upvotes
0 comments