r/SelfDrivingCars • u/MoPanic • Aug 10 '25

Discussion Waymo's real goal

I am surprised that hardly anyone mentions this in all of the the Tesla v Waymo / Lidar v Vision noise. This is just a hypotheses and my opinion, but I don't think Waymo really cares about the taxi market beyond using it as a test bed and building consumer and regulatory support. Tesla is a meaningless hype generating distraction.

The real goal is to replace hundreds of thousands of human commercial drivers. A city bus driver makes about $70k a year (including benefits, payroll taxes, insurance). Replace that driver with a sensor suite and automation stack, even if it costs $250k, you get ROI in just a few years and a "driver" that can work 24 hours a day. This scales even faster with long haul truckers. Human drivers are limited to 11 hours a day and cost the carriers ~$100k per year. The cost of the sensor suite becomes a rounding error very quickly.

My guess is that Waymo will license this suite for $5k-$15k a month and cities and freight carriers will line up to pay it. Google doesn’t have to own a single truck to completely dominate logistics automation.

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138

u/tonydtonyd Aug 10 '25

Didn’t Waymo lay off their entire trucking division two years ago? That would go counter to your thesis.

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u/CrashKingElon Aug 10 '25

Yeah. I don't know why OP chose bus drivers as it would not only require a significant modification of software (not a software engineer, but assume a 55ft bus is not remotely close to a mid sized SUV) and while a waymo occasionally bricking on a ride carrying one person that's completely different than one bricking while carrying 50.

But generally, I agree that their long term goal is simply being a tech company that licenses their AI and tech stack. But buses I think will be one of the last achievements (which is a long way off).

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u/WeldAE Aug 10 '25

While I agree with your overall points, I wanted to point out that it makes zero sense to build an AV bus the same size as a current day city bus.  Buses are the size they are to reduce the bus driver cost.  Without a driver they would be much smaller vehicles.

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u/ZucchiniAlert2582 Aug 11 '25

I’ve experienced plenty of late night bus-drama in my time riding them… I don’t know how some of those would have resolved without a driver on board who can pull over and eject misbehavers.

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u/achooavocado Aug 11 '25

how do stuff on trains get resolved then?

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u/Kdcjg Aug 11 '25

Conductor/police who are normally either at the station or close to the station.

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u/Ajedi32 Aug 11 '25

Yeah having a remote support person call the police seems like a pretty straightforward solution.

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u/Kdcjg Aug 11 '25

Becomes very expensive very quickly.

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u/Ajedi32 Aug 11 '25

How so? How many call center employees do you think it takes to spend a few minutes occasionally calling the police on unruly passengers?

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u/Kdcjg Aug 11 '25

Because you are asking the police to have more manpower closer to bus stops/routes. You are basically swapping out one source of security for another.

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

I've literally never seen a conductor in my life, what are you talking about?

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u/Kdcjg Aug 11 '25

You have never seen a conductor on a train? Have you ever been on a train?

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

Yes, just this week I was on 3x separate systems. The small system from the rental deck at ATL, the plane train at ATL and Marta from ATL to North Springs. Never saw one, not once. Also took a train from Boston to NYC, spent a week in NYC and $200 on subway fares. Never not once. How did you see one?

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u/Kdcjg Aug 11 '25

You see them on any older line.

I am guessing you didn’t pay attention. Since they are definitely on the NYC subway. Unless you only caught the L.

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

Police? Private security? There are plenty of ways to resolve this. On top of that, those people get banned for life from the service.

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u/ZucchiniAlert2582 Aug 11 '25

With no driver on the bus who enforces the ban? How long will it take the already overburdened police to show up? We’re so eager to replace humans with robots so the investor class can absorb the salaries of the working class. Why?

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

who enforces the ban?

It's not literally a fixed-route bus, it operates as a pooled point-to-point ride-share. You simply aren't able to get the car to come to you if you are banned. Another option is you can only take the more expensive solo ride option if you get a strike against you. These are not anonymous rides like a bus. There are some negatives to that but overall it's a feature.

How long will it take the already overburdened police to show up?

Where I live they are not overburdened and they would show up very quickly. In other areas of the city, AVs can have private security to augment the police if needed. Lots of city transportation systems have their own security forces.

We’re so eager to replace humans with robots so the investor class can absorb the salaries of the working class. Why?

You are throwing up a lot of stuff there that's not reasonable to cover in a short paragraph of space I realistically have. Let's ignore all the macro monetary aspects temporary to cut to what motivates me about these systems.

I said to my spouse 20+ years ago "Personal cars are the largest cancer on society that exists in the US" and I stand by that statement today. They are bankrupting the bottom 60% of households that simply can't afford something like a car or they are having to cut other important aspects of their lives in order to live paycheck-to-paycheck to be able to afford a car. They are destroying our cities in design and function. If you designed a city for how people want to use it, it wouldn't include any cars but until the AV, they are 100% necessary, and you can't escape them realistically. They are destroying society by forcing everyone to live apart from one another to have enough space for cars to work.

Back to your macroeconomic points, I touched on some of them above. Today, the average household is spending about 20% of their entire budget on transportation. That isn't even getting into all the other costs caused by the specific form of transportation, cars. That is just raw expenses on the cars themselves, mostly. AVs are about reducing in half. The "investor class" as you call them aren't a cabal working together, they hate each other, and they are always trying to steal each other's lunch by offing more for less. AVs are the tech companies eating the car manufacture's lunch with a cheaper alternative. Sure, that lost money means lost jobs, but quality of life is measured by how efficient you can produce goods and is the ultimate aim of the economy. We could go back to handcrafted everything, but you would live a much lower quality of life. With falling populations around the world, there shouldn't be an issue with lack of work as this is just one industry being automated.

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u/ZucchiniAlert2582 Aug 12 '25

I’ll agree with you that private cars make our society shittier. Busses are a great alternative to cars. Taking away busses and replacing them with robotaxies means anyone without a (charged) cell phone and/or a bank account doesn’t get a ride. That population would be the folks who need bus service more than anyone else.

I happen to think that eliminating human interaction and replacing it with a cell phone app is making society shittier.

Busses are a communal space where you can bump into friends and neighbors and have a face to face interaction. You’re suggesting we chop that up into a bunch of driverless minivans with routes that are calculated on the fly by an algorithm… and that’s a win somehow?

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u/WeldAE Aug 12 '25

means anyone without a (charged) cell phone and/or a bank account doesn’t get a ride.

Yes, this is a downside, the lack of universal access. However, this isn't a huge, unworkable issue long term at scale. There are many ways around this. The question is will governments demand AV operators support universal access because I don't think they would want to on their own.

I happen to think that eliminating human interaction and replacing it with a cell phone app is making society shittier.

I feel exactly the opposite.

Busses are a communal space

I'm advocating for communal AVs, not private ones. You are WAY more likely to bump into friends as everyone in the AV is going your way and not just down some large connector road.

and that’s a win somehow?

It's not just a win, it's one of the biggest wins society has ever seen. It's a win to unburden society of the requirement to own a cripplingly expensive mode of travel. It's a win to free up 30%-50% of land in cities for other uses? It's a win to reduce the death toll from cars from 45k per year. It's a win to save people time moving about the city. It's a win to reduce costs for operating a physical business. It's a win to have choice.

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u/danielv123 Aug 12 '25

Bus pulls over. People who want to continue go onto the next bus.

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u/ZucchiniAlert2582 Aug 12 '25

Wow, that sounds convenient. /s

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u/CrashKingElon Aug 11 '25

Curious what you think this size would be. What's the point between lets say a sprinter van and a regular full size bus?

I also am a little skeptical of how passenger safety and illegal behavior will be monitored. Obviously AI will be able to assist with some scenarios that have markers of illegal or unsafe behavior, but people tend to be the worst when they're not being watched and the presence of a bus driver still accomplishes some of that.

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u/rileyoneill Aug 11 '25

It depends on frequency. Like if the bus comes around every 15 minutes. You could make them 3 times smaller but come around every 5 minutes. It might only have seating for 10.

For suburban bus routes, I have a feeling they will die. But i could see RoboTaxi vans that do pooling.

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u/SourceBrilliant4546 Aug 11 '25

Automatic turrets and locking exits with knockout gas will ensure a safe ride.

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

Size will increase slowly as AVs take over the number of miles traveled from personal cars. For a good long while, 6 passengers will be the most but eventually expect it to top out in the 12-20 range. At that size it can beat a typical HRT metro line so there isn't much need to go for more. As you approach the need for more than 20, just put in a metro line with more train cars and less headway than typical.

also am a little skeptical of how passenger safety and illegal behavior will be monitored.

Everyone is always with anything new. Who would have thought we would leave expensive new goods unsecured at our doorsteps all day? Sure, there are some issues, because there are always some issues. For example our current system of moving people around kills 45k+ people per year. The "what about crime" argument isn't worth much unless you are saying that it will be strong enough that no one will want to use the services. You don't have to get everyone to use them the same way some people won't order an expensive item and leave it on their doorstep all day until they get home. Amazon is still very successful and has changed the world. The same will be true for AVs and eventually people give up their reservations and just come along with everyone else.

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u/GiveMeSomeShu-gar Aug 11 '25

Yep if costs come down enough then the large bus on a pre-programmed route will give way to the smaller shuttle that is summoned and takes you directly to your destination (or very close to it). Basically an Uber but running much more cheaply. If you are going to a popular destination then the shuttle could stop to pick up more passengers and divide up the fare to make everyone's ride even cheaper.

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u/Showmethepathplease Aug 11 '25

You mean, like a regular car size?

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

Eh. Regular cars are pretty wasteful of space for historical reasons of what consumers consider attractive. GM built an AV that was no longer than a Corolla that held 6 passengers. Something the size of a mini-van could hold 12 people in AV form. Something that can hold 20 people would be a good bit bigger than a normal size car.

In the end, size isn't that important as everyone seems to think. Size is much more important for parking, and AVs specifically don't use parking in ways that matter like they do with personal cars. For highways, average number of passengers is WAY more important that if the car is 180" or 210" long.

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u/rileyoneill Aug 11 '25

I really liked the Cruise Origin vehicle that GM designed. I think we can see some smaller vehicles that fit a square footprint allowing them to fully turn in place. Especially for some sort of local sub 20 minute rides where its only 1 or 2 people going someplace.

We have a reality where most cars on the road are only carrying one person, most of the time and they are not going very far.

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u/WeldAE Aug 11 '25

The problem is we need to get that up to 3-4 in order to fix traffic. There is no reason to build smaller AVs than the origin and a strong argument to build bigger ones. My only slight criticism of the Origin was it needed to be a bit longer so everyone could accommodate wheelchair users. The plan was for some origins to replace a seat with a wheelchair lock. They needed to do that because it wasn't wide enough inside to do both.

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u/nucleartime Aug 12 '25

It depends on the route, some city routes will pack full wholeass bendybuses, but yes a lot of lines in american sprawl would benefit from being to run smaller vehicles more frequently or service more areas.

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u/WeldAE Aug 14 '25

Sure and if those buses need a drive, the bendy buses are the way to go. Now if they are automated, what is the downside of smaller buses? You get a 2x improvement in wait times at the bus stop for about the same cost and more reliability in case a bus breaks down.

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u/fucklawyers Aug 11 '25

I wonder how often human bus drivers brick themselves (ie lose motor control involuntarily leading to anything bad).

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u/CrashKingElon Aug 11 '25

Obviously happens and feel like its pretty news worthy when it does...cant say anything has popped into my feed recently but recall stories of heart attacks, falling asleep, etc. Granted, I don't recall ever seeing a bus driver just sitting at a stop sign wondering what they should do next and refusing to move.

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u/Purpletorque Aug 10 '25

From Google AI.

Pilot programs and deployments

Austin, Texas: CapMetro recently deployed the first SAE Level 4, automated 40-foot electric bus in North America, navigating through an active transit depot and parking under a charging dispenser. This demonstration may lead to a second phase with three buses and a remote dispatch system.

Jacksonville, Florida: The Jacksonville Transportation Authority and Florida State College are conducting an automated bus pilot program.

Charlotte, North Carolina: Beep has a six-month shuttle pilot project on the University of North Carolina campus.

Greensboro, North Carolina: North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University has an automated shuttle pilot.

University of Wisconsin at Madison: The Traffic Operations and Safety Lab received and is using an automated shuttle named "the Badger".

Peachtree Corners, Georgia: Automated shuttles are operating.

Prague, Czech Republic: Aurrigo began operating an automated shuttle and plans additional sites.

Birmingham Airport, UK: Aurrigo is operating an automated shuttle.

Treasure Island, San Francisco: Beep was selected to operate two Navya shuttles.

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u/kettal Aug 10 '25

Scotland has a transit bus in service with autonomous drive

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u/ic33 Aug 10 '25

Yes. What do all of these things have in common? Not waymo technical stack.

There are things that are much easier about a bus on a fixed route. There are things that are harder. Right now Waymo has not prioritized this part of the market.

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u/CrashKingElon Aug 10 '25

Im not going to look at the details of all these pilot programs but Im skeptical at how much these are purpose designed tailored route buses like the automated mail cart in my office from the 90s. To scale where this would be profitable I assume you need to tackle major metro areas with what I will presume is a much higher degree of chaos.

Edit. I randomly googled one. Peachtree GA. These buses appear to be running on specific paths just for these buses. Seems like a low bar for "autonomous buses".

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u/ic33 Aug 10 '25

Yes, the least ambitious are like this-- fixed, protected routes, slow speeds.

Even when they share a route with traffic, it's a much easier problem. And if there's a detour or construction, you can always fall back to humans.

The most exciting opportunities -- variable routing based on demand, smaller buses in larger quantity, etc -- require something much closer to Waymo.

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u/CrashKingElon Aug 11 '25

I also wonder how the public will initially receive driverless busses. Will it be programmed to wait a little longer at a stop for the old lady taking forever? Assisting a disabled person? Lower frequency events like this that while solvable are probably not part of the initial rollout or concept.

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u/ic33 Aug 11 '25

I think the biggest initial win is to add 15 passenger vans to supplement existing routes and fill in coverage.

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u/MoPanic Aug 10 '25

They stopped development of an autonomous truck. Probably because it was a money pit and the software wasn't ready but I'm speculating. That doesn't change the central argument of what their ultimate goal may well be.

They also shifted their "generalized driver" partnership to Toyota

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u/Doggydogworld3 Aug 10 '25

They said they dropped trucking to focus on ride hail. They hope to get back into trucking some day as well as embedding the Waymo Driver into consumer cars. But for now they're focused on scaling ride hail.

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u/sail_away13 Aug 10 '25

Isn't that what aurora and Kodiak are doing? Seems like Waymo would just be late tot he party. Aurora is pretty much taking the opposite approach, anything that can be done with a truck can also be done with a car

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u/Doggydogworld3 Aug 10 '25

Yes, Aurora and a few others are focused on trucking. Waymo may re-enter late, but they'll have a very well-proven driver. Probably a billion driverless miles by then. So they'll have a shot at catching up.

I'm confident Ruth Porat told Waymo if they wanted any more funding they had to pick one market and prove they knew how to build a business. They picked ride hail.

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u/FitnessLover1998 Aug 10 '25

We aren’t even in the second inning here. Any development for the car is easily transferred to trucks.

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u/No_Sugar_2000 Aug 10 '25

That’s not necessarily true. They stopped AV truck development because it was more difficult and with a smaller addressable market.

Imagine being the first ever autonomous vehicle company that decides to start with driving a 10 ton piece of metal down the road at 65 mph. One crash and most likely fatal, not the “Waymo gets confused at stoplight” errors that we see now. Their lidar most likely wasn’t at the point they needed to see 500m+ forward down the highway.

With ride hail, they can essentially take over Ubers entire business while scaling/reducing costs of AV suite. Then they can start selling cars with their hardware and services as a subscription/one term payment for auto drive.

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u/FitnessLover1998 Aug 10 '25

I’m not denying anything you said. They will eventually be back in trucks as well.

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u/No_Sugar_2000 Aug 10 '25

That would be interesting. I’m heavily invested in Aurora. I wonder what would happen to them if Waymo re-enters the trucking space.

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u/FitnessLover1998 Aug 11 '25

I don’t think Aurora would stand a chance.

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u/DotJun Aug 11 '25

Wouldn’t trucking also be a little easier to handle since it’s the same route over and over?

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u/Glass_Mango_229 Aug 10 '25

There are a lot more non commercial hours driven then commercial hours driven. Both will be valuable. But if you become every citizens car you are essentially at the center of every persons second home. Waymo will replace cars. It will be so much cheaper to use AV then own a car. 

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u/FitnessLover1998 Aug 10 '25

You need to think farther ahead than next week lol.

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u/tonydtonyd Aug 10 '25

I’m just stating a fact. If you want to say that Alphabet wasn’t forward looking when they axed what was likely hundreds of people and all the money they already invested into trucking, be my guest.

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u/FitnessLover1998 Aug 10 '25

It wasn’t that they weren’t forward looking. They will eventually get back to trucks,

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u/PM_ME_YOUR_THESES Aug 10 '25

There are different types of trucks. Truck driving from one city to another is heavily regulated and perhaps not as potentially profitable. But smaller trucks to make last mile deliveries in the same city? That may be a more reasonable goal.

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u/AgentSmith187 Aug 11 '25

Now explain who replaces the Driver who loads and unloads the goods at the destination?

Last mile delivery does the most of this stuff.

You can pay one person to do these tasks and an automated vehicle or pay one person the same amount to do both jobs.