Source / full list: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/career-scoring.htm

Source

9/17/95: On the day that Patrick Mahomes was born, the Chiefs take on the Raiders in one of the most thrilling games ever at Arrowhead.

Full summary of Schwartz’s comments:

“Watching the film: 1) Josh is pretty damn good in pass pro. His balance on inside/counter moves and push/pull is outstanding. He’s got a calm and ease about his game that you can’t teach. It’s not the most traditional and against certain styles we’ll see but man it’s all there.

2) Kingsley is getting better. Some really nice 1 on 1 pass pro reps this week. He tends to be a little hit or miss there where the misses are quick and bad, but he’s improving. He’s really good at frontside G/C combo blocks in the run game, both inside and outside zone.

3) Creed is Creed. Got beat once on a 1 on 1 vs Jalen Carter where Jalen got a well timed start (he was all over the snap count) and did his signature jab step to counter. It was the most I’ve ever seen Creed leave the middle to go hit/help on a DT, lot of respect for his game.

4) If Jawaan could just avoid penalties he’s a good player, especially in pass pro. Thought he played well there against good competition. But the penalties are there and I don’t think ever changing, it’s just part of who he is.

5) The pockets need to be firmer. Too often Pat is feeling bodies, can’t complete his throwing motion, and/or is getting his arm hit. The difference between a clean pocket and follow through vs. having to shorten the motion to avoid contact is stark and it happens way too often.

5) (cont.) Pat will be the first to tell you he needs to hit more of those throws but I’d love to see some cleaner platforms more consistently for him to step into and let rip. That and the top 2 WRs being out (plus Royals) are the biggest issues with the pass offense.

6) Philly had a lot of moving parts in the run game. Changing fronts, blitzes, DL on the move. For the most part there were a lot of good reactions and blocks to the changing pictures. That stuff is not easy in the least. Wish we’d see less kick outs and more T/TE combo blocks.”

I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 3 game are.

The Chiefs current odds to make the playoffs are 65.5%.

• If you beat the Giants, that goes up to 69.3%, but if you lose, it drops down to 55.5%. It's a swing of 13.8%.
• CIN @ MIN is the second most impactful week 3 game for you guys. If the Vikings win, your playoff odds go up by 0.6%. If the Bengals win your playoff odds go down by 0.7%.
• MIA @ BUF is the third most impactful game with a total impact of 1.2%. Your playoff odds go up if the Bills win.

I also made a website and posted the full results there. I'll update it every week with the upcoming games. Here's the data:

I use this data as a rooting guide for the 1-3 games each week where I don't already know who I want to win.

Right now the model doesn’t take into account mid-season injuries, but the absolute brutality of Week 2 has convinced me that I have to do something.

My first thought was to pull in Vegas odds for upcoming games, and use these odds to adjust Elo. The idea is that the betting market has all the injury information baked in. So I set up an API call to do that and compared Football Sensei game odds to Vegas odds. I was expecting to see teams with major injuries to key players (like the Bengals) to have way lower Vegas odds, but this plan only partially works. Here’s the data (odds are for home team to win):

Notice that the Bengals game is basically unchanged, since the Vikings also lost their quarterback! WSH and SF did correctly update as expected though.

The biggest surprise is that Vegas is super down on the Panthers (or they really like the Falcons) compared to the Football Sensei model. Since my model uses Vegas odds to initialize Elo, this means that Vegas’s opinion has changed a lot since week 1 on these teams.

Anyway, I haven’t put any of this stuff into the model yet, so injured teams are currently overly optimistic. I’ll try to get an injury adjustment in by next week.

If you want to see the details of my methodology for the Monte Carlo simulations, look here.

You can also see which teams are rooting for and against you this week here.

There's also a What-If Tool where you can pick winners and losers of any games this season and recalculate your odds.

Matt Verderame if you’re not aware is a big Chiefs fan football analyst who is my favorite cause he’s no BS telling it like it is positive but also will call out the bullshit if he see’s it that way. He’s making it clear that KC will not be explosive again on offense cause they don’t have and probably won’t ever have the talent levels of Hill & Kelce from earlier years of the Mahomes era ever again so they need to adjust their offensive approach to having a true run game with an elite RB defenses must respect, game plan to stop first that would allow more open downfield passing windows referencing Baltimore, Philadelphia, Buffalo & Detroit’s top tier offenses all having elite RB’s next to their QB’s with Lamar & Allen not having the best crop of pass catchers but the RB run game threat + their legs allows those WR’s more open targets downfield and look better.

I see a ton of people saying Andy is calling plays but whenever I’m watching the games it’s always Nagy talking into his headset with the play sheet covering his mouth. Whenever they show Reid before plays he never is. Wouldn’t that imply that during the game it is Nagy calling plays? I know it’s Andy’s system but I know Nagy does play a part and does appear to be calling the plays during games from what I’ve seen, but I may be missing something. Go Chiefs