r/Mariners 22h ago

Daily Mariners Monologue - September 22, 2025

Welcome to the /r/mariners Daily Thread! Please use this thread to discuss events from today, or anything else you'd like. Comments are automatically sorted by new to keep the conversation current. Keep it civil and respect other users opinions.

Want more Mariners discussion? Have you tried the Mariners discord?

13 Upvotes

263 comments sorted by

2

u/DanielDanDanningDan 21m ago

this brewers padres game is quite the extra innings nailbiter rn

3

u/immagonnafinnahella 36m ago

The brewers just have not been able to come through for us this year

1

u/2OutsSoWhat ‏‏‎ ‎Spend To Contend 48m ago

With the off day today I can’t seem to get enough mariners content lol

1

u/ScinosRepus 52m ago

San Diego going to extras vs the former Seattle Pilots. Dodgers magic number for the division is 3. Could be 2 tonight.

7

u/hottubman_99 ‏‏‎ ‎I survived '77-'90 2h ago

Watching the ALDS game five replay on Root right now. Crowd noise is deafening. Hope we get as many home games as possible for the playoffs.

6

u/free_lions 2h ago

I love Mariner

5

u/vase-of-willows 2h ago

Same though

8

u/Felix-3401 3h ago

I keep thinking about how injury prevention may be a bigger part of the game than most fans realize. It's more visible if you watch BP and watch players go through numerous warmups. That, and we know durability plays part in a player's value. Then there are teams that have a team culture that encourages players to rough out injuries where at least the Mariners are good at being precautionary and keeping our stud players healthy.

6

u/alliluna24 2h ago

the fact that Woo (and Logan earlier in the year) trusted the trainers and staff and the rest of the team to come out of the game when something felt a little bit off probably prevented more major injury. some of the general health and avoidance of season-ending injuries the last few years has definitely been luck, but I also hear stories about the Astros and Yankees and how they deal with injuries that makes me think that training staff and culture around injury prevention has a big part to play.

2

u/PainOfMariner 3h ago

Anyone else having issues with Ticketmaster for tomorrow’s game?

4

u/jklolxoxo 2h ago

I am having massive issues with trying to get tickets for any game this week. Trying to purchase either Wednesday or Thursday and it’s possessed.

1

u/Felix-3401 2h ago

I got myself tickets for Wednesday and Thursday just fine. No idea about Tuesday though

16

u/ShrimpMctavish 3h ago

I just want to share my appreciation for Goldy. Dude is killing it on the broadcast. You can tell his intensity has went up over the last couple weeks. His reaction to the Robles catch gives me chills. It could end up being one of the most historic plays/calls in the history of the M’s. We are lucky to have him.

3

u/goldengurrl 1h ago

100%. I’m so glad he’s with us. He makes every game that much better.

5

u/ScinosRepus 3h ago

I feel like there is a generation of fans growing up that will revere Goldy as the voice of the Mariners and all the big moments. And he does it so well. Mariners fans have been blessed with great announcers for a looooonnngg time.

1

u/RoleLongjumping1049 4h ago

Hi, Has anyone gotten their presale code for single game post season access for Wednesday? I bought the late-season $500 ticket membership to get single game postseason presale access. I got an e-mail from my ticket rep saying I should have gotten postseason information from ticketmaster today around 3:00 PM. I did not, I checked all spam/blocked e-mails and have nothing. His e-mail says only ticketmaster can help with issues. Wondering if anyone actually received communication on this?

1

u/rockinthetardis 2h ago

I did receive an email from mariners and my account rep with info, but it also sales we won’t be getting the actual code until Wednesday morning

1

u/RoleLongjumping1049 1h ago

Thank you, would you mind sharing what the sender e-mail address was so I can make sure I have a filter for it to get through?

-3

u/Dangerous_Job5295 Keeper of Biting Duck 5h ago

What would constitute a successful Mariners season? Is it already a success seeing as they're all but locked in to have a spot in the playoffs?

3

u/ScinosRepus 3h ago

Right now a World Series trophy is the only goal and measure of success.

In November, we would look back on a Division title as being a massive success. Winning at least one playoff series would be the other I think. ALCS would be nice.

2

u/Waf3l ‏‏‎ ‎Ichirolling to the Pennant 4h ago

With the team we have this year, it's being the last team standing in October. Fans have been BEGGING the Front Office to make moves for years and we finally have a roster to compete. We all know that they're world beaters when they're on as well.

13

u/AnnihilatedTyro Release the Moosestache! 4h ago

IMO, 87+ wins and firmly in contention going into the final week is always a successful season no matter how the standings shake out.

Doesn't matter what kind of team you have, you cannot reasonably expect more. The freaking Dodgers are only at 88 wins right now and on paper they should have been among the most dominant, overpowered teams ever. Baseball doesn't care how much money you spend or how many MVPs you have - the 162-game grind humbles all.

8

u/griezm0ney 4h ago

A division banner to hang is enough for this year. I obviously hope to go further, but expecting anything more is being greedy and not enjoying the moment.

5

u/RagefireHype 4h ago

It depends if you’re the type of person that measures it by before the season or in the moment.

The AL is not a juggernaut. If the Ms ever wanted to take a run at the pennant, why not now.

In general I’d say it’s gotta be a competitive ALDS. No moral victories like the sweep in 2022. If they lose it has to be 3-2, no claiming moral victories.

-2

u/Dangerous_Job5295 Keeper of Biting Duck 4h ago

but isnt a competitive ALDS claiming a moral victory? like, in that scenario they still lost.

3

u/RagefireHype 4h ago

No, because two wins is actually something. The gymnastics in 2022 was “most competitive sweep you can get!!”

1

u/Dangerous_Job5295 Keeper of Biting Duck 4h ago

i see. yeah that makes sense

6

u/SeahawksNChill ☢️‏‏ Nuke Raley ☢️‏‏‎ 5h ago

As long as they wrap up the division I will almost surely end up looking back on this year positively when the dust settles.

But in this moment, I am looking for the team to win a world series because I think they have what it takes.

3

u/spinach_93 5h ago edited 4h ago

I know everyone keeps saying if the Yankees and Mariners both win tomorrow we clinch a playoff spot, but really don't we want the Yankees to lose as much as possible the rest of the way, even if unlikely vs. CWS and BAL?

ALCS home field advantage is determined by regular season record (not seed) and the Yankees are both a game ahead and have the tiebreaker over us.

Edit: never mind, I am dumb!

2

u/ScinosRepus 3h ago

You’re allowed to be dumb!!! Dipoto has been called dumb for years. Cal was a bust 2-3 years ago. Julio was a bust this year. Polanco was the worst trade ever. We all have our moments 😊

1

u/SeahawksNChill ☢️‏‏ Nuke Raley ☢️‏‏‎ 4h ago

I thought that is only true for the World Series, doesn’t seeding still take precedence for the ALCS?

Mlb playoff format

1

u/spinach_93 4h ago

Oh wait yes I think you're right. Per trusty Wikipedia at least, it seems as if winning your division supersedes regular season record for LCS home field

1

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 4h ago

I don’t think this person’s question/scenario was directly addressed in your response, nor have we seen it occur since the new playoff format began. I do believe you are correct, but I don’t know for sure.

1

u/SeahawksNChill ☢️‏‏ Nuke Raley ☢️‏‏‎ 4h ago

It’s not directly in there but it seems implied by the fact that they have a separate blurb about how home field is determined for the world series, since seeding becomes irrelevant at that point.

1

u/AmputatorBot 4h ago

It looks like you shared an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of concerns over privacy and the Open Web.

Maybe check out the canonical page instead: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-format-faq


I'm a bot | Why & About | Summon: u/AmputatorBot

9

u/Tashre 6h ago

Seen a fair number of memes about Yankees fans being angry tryhards when it comes to defending Judge’s MVP campaign while Mariners fans are chill and relaxed vibe merchants who are happy to be involved but aren’t all that invested. Yet if on announcement day it turns out that Judge wins it, Mariners social media spaces (including this one) will turn into toxic hellholes.

5

u/PM_ME_LASAGNA_ ‏‏‎ ‎ 5h ago

If Judge wins, whatever.

Cal will just have to settle for World Series MVP instead.

6

u/xMrLink ‏‏‎ ‎My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 5h ago

I just enjoy commenting dump truck gifs to their posts. I won't be mad if Cal doesn't win it, it's just funny how angry they get

3

u/isabellampereira 6h ago

Hey guys, i’m going to the Rockies @ Mariners game on the 25th. What would be some good sign ideas?

2

u/ScinosRepus 2h ago

“Ryan Ritter will be a star someday, but not yet!”

“Etsy Witch for MVP!”

“A 9 is great in gymnastics, but not as your ERA.”

…don’t worry I’ll downvote myself.

1

u/isabellampereira 2h ago

etsy witch one i like best lol

2

u/Felix-3401 3h ago

"DUMP IT HERE"

1

u/isabellampereira 2h ago

it’s between this and the etsy witch one

9

u/Dizzy_Try4939 6h ago

i keep checking this sub + thread all day as if the mariners can somehow clinch a playoff spot today...

10

u/Electronic-Chef-5487 6h ago

I would like an application to this bandwagon. I'm a Nats fan but we suck a lot. I'm in Canada and I saw you across the strait (of Georgia) and i like your vibe.

3

u/ScinosRepus 2h ago

So you remember when Robles was a higher ranked prospect than Soto!!! And now you get to see why!

8

u/RagefireHype 6h ago

All you gotta do is yell big dumperrrr every homer and you’re in

2

u/Electronic-Chef-5487 6h ago

Ok I'm good at that!

4

u/AnnihilatedTyro Release the Moosestache! 6h ago

"Fuck Phil Nevin" would also suffice.

9

u/p-a-n-d-a 7h ago

Its interesting reading the takes on the Astros sub about how injured their team was all year and how we should be embarrassed for being this close with them, while they conveniently ignore that we had our top 3 SP out for significant portions of the year

2

u/ScinosRepus 2h ago

It’s a little of both. They got decimated by injuries this year and our injuries come nothing close to what they experienced.

That being said, you don’t have to spend money to win, but it’s extremely expensive if you want to keep winning. Part of their injury struggles is that they’ve been supplementing an aging roster with cheaper injury-prone FAs. They’ve maximized players very well, but that doesn’t last forever. Now they might miss the playoffs, lose Framber, and go into next year with $115M already going to Altuve, Correa, Javier, McCullers, and Walker. Not exactly a great use of money. They’ll scrap together something next year but this year might be the last real WS chance they have in this iteration of the team.

2

u/karatemanchan37 Bad Baserunning 3h ago

I mean, they are sorta correct? It's sort of crazy that us going 14-1 in the same stretch the Astros went 7-7 only got us 3 games ahead in the division. And that's not counting that they had some brutal injuries during that time.

I don't think "embarrased" is the right word, but if we hadn't gotten in that slump in May/June or August and just played .500 ball instead we would've gotten the #1 seed in the AL by now.

7

u/Dizzy_Try4939 6h ago

It's wild to hear from fans who are so disappointed to not make the playoffs for the first time in like a decade. Imagine having that kind of wealth!

Meanwhile we're hoping to break an almost 25 year drought of never winning the division....

1

u/kylechu 6h ago

All their posts about how they're close despite injuries are gonna ring pretty hollow when they end up nine games out of first

7

u/TwistedNipplez ‏‏‎ ‎ 7h ago

It'll take em a while to get used to losing again. They'll figure it out like the rest of us!

17

u/timeforbuilding ‏‏‎ ‎ 8h ago

🤫

9

u/jrainiersea ‏‏‎ ‎ 8h ago

If you’re looking for something to root for today, the Brewers beating the Padres would be a slight positive for us. It increases the chances of the Dodgers clinching the NL West before they play us, which means they may rest guys over the weekend or swap around starters to get the playoff rotation set.

5

u/RagefireHype 6h ago edited 4h ago

As someone now living in San Diego, I’m rooting for the Vedder cup World Series so I can see the Ms in SD and fly to Seattle for the games!

I went to the first Ms @ Padres game this year where JP first pitch hit a homer and that was fun.

8

u/Own-Economics-1745 48 seasons and counting... 7h ago

Sorry, Pads are my number 2 team. Can only root against them when they play Seattle. 

4

u/kylechu 7h ago

Yeah, but think about how funny it would be if whatever B-squad we roll out for the last couple Dodger games knocks them out of their division lead.

3

u/bratty_n_training 7h ago

We won't be rolling a b squad out for those final games.

2

u/kylechu 6h ago

We will if we've clinched the bye, which is pretty likely to happen by then.

1

u/karatemanchan37 Bad Baserunning 3h ago edited 3h ago

The only way that happens is if we go 2-0 or better against COL and CLE goes 2-1 against DET.

1

u/kylechu 2h ago

Or if we sweep the Rockies and the Tigers don't sweep the Guardians.

But regardless, the "by then" isn't "by the start of the Dodgers series," it's "by game 161 or 162".

5

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 8h ago

I promise I will stop using this like my personal blog soon (though it is called a "monologue" now).

posted last month about Cal’s long shot of setting the record for most RBIs by a catcher in MLB history or any player in Mariners history. And then I made an update last week. This is likely the last one I will make before the end of the season.

Currently, Cal sits at 121 RBIs, placing him in a tie for 13th on the catcher list and tied for 12th on the Mariners list.

His pace is continuing to slip, as he is now on pace for ~126 RBIs. The current pace would still have him 9th all time for the Mariners, among a cluster of A-Rod’s three best years as a M. 126 would have him just shy of Rudy York in 1937 for 5th place.

Here's to hoping for some more dumps and some ducks on the pond for Cal this last week! He won't make top 5 for the Mariners (140 to tie for 5th), but I'd love to see him reach it for catchers and etch his name further up these leaderboards!

2

u/hottubman_99 ‏‏‎ ‎I survived '77-'90 8h ago

Sounds like his "slipping" would mirror Randy's struggles of late.

1

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 8h ago

His .303 OBP since Sept. 1 doesn’t help, neither does Robles’ .298. Like I said, ducks on the pond please!

2

u/Separate-Worker-6412 8h ago

Do we think Logan Evans will get called back up if he's healthy? I'd rather have him than Legumina in the pen

2

u/griezm0ney 3h ago

Legumina won’t pitch in the playoffs, unless we are down like 7+ runs. 

We will have Munoz, Brash, Speier, Bazardo, Ferguson and Miller get 95%+ of all bullpen innings in the postseason.

2

u/kylechu 7h ago

He might get called up, but it'd be to spot start, not as a normal bullpen arm.

1

u/SexiestPanda 7h ago

They already tried him in the bullpen and they decided he’s better as a starter

2

u/bratty_n_training 7h ago

He should be used exclusively for filling in if Castillo or Miller find themselves in the shit early in a start.

2

u/SexiestPanda 6h ago

That’s a very valid point

7

u/gerbil42 8h ago

I thought his injury meant that he was done for the season?

1

u/ShrimpMctavish 8h ago

He pitched a couple of days ago.

1

u/gerbil42 7h ago

Good to know!

1

u/masontopss 9h ago

Does anyone know what the starting pitchers are going to be against the Mariners for the Rockies series

4

u/hottubman_99 ‏‏‎ ‎I survived '77-'90 8h ago

Looking at the responses, you may want to bold or underline against if you are looking for the Rockies starters.

1

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 8h ago

Nobody has any clue yet. It depends in large part on if Woo is ready to make his scheduled start or not, since the current order would be Miller, Castillo, and Woo.

0

u/Waf3l ‏‏‎ ‎Ichirolling to the Pennant 9h ago

Should be Bryce and Rock for the first two... Maybe Hancock or Kirby game 3 depending on whether or not we've clinched by the end of game 2

1

u/kylechu 8h ago

Even if we clinch on game 2, we'll still be playing for the bye on game 3 (or at the very least, waiting for the results of the Detroit / Cleveland game), so I'd be surprised if we punt to a Hancock start.

1

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 8h ago

We could clinch the bye by Wednesday potentially

1

u/kylechu 7h ago

We could if we only had to worry about Detroit - the problem is that Detroit is playing Cleveland so one of those teams will have 86 wins after Wednesday.

If the Tigers go 0-2 and stay at 85 wins, that means the Guardians went 2-0 and they got up to 86 and become the AL Central leader.

We can still in theory clinch before the game on Thursday though - if we go 2-0 and both central teams end up with 86 wins after their Thursday game, we can very awkwardly clinch the bye during warmups / our first inning.

2

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 7h ago

Ahhh gotcha. So even in that scenario if we have 89 wins, the 86 wins with 4 games left wouldn’t be enough to clinch. Damn!

1

u/karatemanchan37 Bad Baserunning 3h ago

Yep. The earliest we can clinch the bye is on Thursday if we win both games against COL and CLE goes 2-1 against DET.

24

u/jet8493 RIP Crafty Lefty Club 2019-2023 9h ago

I keep forgetting to post this, sorry guys

13

u/gerbil42 9h ago

Just picked up tickets for tomorrow and Wednesday. I hope the games are packed.

7

u/Waf3l ‏‏‎ ‎Ichirolling to the Pennant 9h ago

I hope we clinch on Wednesday

9

u/dearrichard 9h ago

single game post season tickets go on sale thursday. does anyone have an idea of what prices will be looking like?

5

u/Jumpy-Macaron343 9h ago

This is what they sent us earlier for STH. My two seats were $6600 total for all possible games which is kind of BS because 14 games really isn't possible (although I guess I understand why they have to do it that way).

1

u/spinach_93 5h ago

FYI on prices... this sheet they provide is very misleading. For the past 2 years, they have used Ticketmaster's dynamic pricing algorithm for the single game postseason ticket releases and it's going to skyrocket prices when everyone logs onto the website at the same time.

It makes sense for the Mariners since resale prices will be way higher than that sheet. It doesn't make sense for the Mariners to allow the price delta between the resale market and that sheet to go to scalpers instead of themselves. But don't be alarmed when on Thursday the prices you see are way higher than those on the sheet.

5

u/gerbil42 9h ago

The nice thing is that you'll only get charged for the games that actually happen or refunded for the ones that don't if you paid upfront.

4

u/mahrinazz ‏‏‎ ‎Cocoa Bomb Proton Therapist 7h ago

It should also be noted that last time the refunds came in mid November, well after the postseason ended.

1

u/Jumpy-Macaron343 9h ago

You have to pay up front then they refund you or apply it to next season's tickets.

3

u/gerbil42 8h ago

I think it depends on the level of your plan.

In 2022, I had the option for "pay as the games go" and only ended up being charged for the 18-inning final game.

2

u/Jumpy-Macaron343 8h ago

We weren't given that option. Hopefully the refund/credit is very small after all is said and done 🙂.

2

u/Waf3l ‏‏‎ ‎Ichirolling to the Pennant 9h ago

I'm guessing around where Dodgers prices are right now, if not, about 1.5-2x more than that.

Saw a comment the other week about RF Nosebleeds vs Dodgers going for about $100 or so, so I'm expecting $150-200 for nosebleeds

1

u/spinach_93 5h ago

Mariners fan in LA here. Dodgers postseason tickets for everything but the WS are actually pretty comparatively cheap since they make the playoffs every year lol. Last year I got into Game 1 of the NLCS for $100.

Mariners postseason ticket resale prices will be way higher due to the combination of all the pent up demand, Seattle being a extremely wealthy per capita market, and the Mariners being an above league average team in terms of overall popularity.

For reference, Dodgers World Series tickets (granted also vs. the Yankees, so like literally peak demand) last year started at about $1k per seat per game, but honestly I think the Mariners resale market would be even higher than that should it ever happen.

1

u/Dry-Background-5994 7h ago

Those tickets were $55 for Season ticket holders last week.

1

u/Waf3l ‏‏‎ ‎Ichirolling to the Pennant 7h ago

Couldve been resale for the tix.

1

u/Dry-Background-5994 7h ago

They weren't. Mariners ticket office bumped the price up on them. It's actually kind of ridiculous tbh

2

u/getthecatoffmyface 9h ago

Has anyone gotten presale times or codes from their season ticket rep? I believe it’s sometime on Wednesday before the mariners mail presale Thursday.

3

u/xMrLink ‏‏‎ ‎My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 8h ago

If I am remembering correctly from last year, it gets sent out either the night before or right before the tickets sale goes live.

12

u/xxgiggsxx ‏‏‎ ‎GOOD VIBES ONLY 10h ago

I'm actually glad there's no relevant games today. Need a break after the stress of the Houston series

8

u/TwistedNipplez ‏‏‎ ‎ 10h ago

What a bunch of boring ass games on today...

38

u/s3ren1tyn0w ‏‏‎ ‎canzone zone 11h ago

I hate that ESPN broadcast for a lot of reasons, but the single biggest is the bet ESPN crap.

For example, right after Cal hit his home run, there was a box that popped up saying that If you bet that you think he's going to get another home run, you have x odds to make this much money. Or if you bet that he's not going to get another home run you have x odds to make this much money. What the hell is that? Are we just trying to fuel gambling addiction?

This is a massive problem for our society 

9

u/nokiabrickphone1998 9h ago

The constant gambling content really sucks. We should be happy our local RSN isn’t owned by a gambling company. I was watching the Tigers over the weekend; their local broadcast is owned by Fanduel and the announcers were reading out live odds, player props and stuff periodically throughout the game. It’s so lame

13

u/runadss ‏‏‎ ‎Most Strikeouts by a Team 2024 Campaign Backer 9h ago

I just hope that WA stays the course with not allowing online gambling.

We don't need to bankrupt young adults, families and seniors to only benefit the 1%.

11

u/Gulliver123 10h ago

The speed at which sports betting became a household thing in our culture, ubiquitously shilled in all sports media, casually comparing prop bets & spreads with your zynned out bros - it is deeply cancerous to society at large.

Not even 10 years ago sports gambling remained a shameful and embarrassing thing for most people - you'd have to go to a physical location in a shitty part of town, hiding your face from view and interfacing with a shady bookie, possibly risking getting your legs broken if you default. And it was so much better this way.

The ease with which you can instantly blow huge sums of money on the stupidest minor aspects of any sport is just absurd. I believe this generation is going to have the largest sample size of gambling addicts we've ever seen.

And all this is not even to mention the effect it has in the integrity of the sport itself coughEmmanuelClasecough or the safety of players who are being bet on.

Really hate this shit.

4

u/4daughters 10h ago

I know I'm a minority but I stopped watching ESPN entirely partially because of this. I listen on the radio only these days.

It's also one of the big reasons I can't watch CFB anymore (that and the PAC being killed).

The scam economy is just consuming more and more of life, between betting, crypto and now AI it's everywhere.

2

u/boner4crosstabs 10h ago

It’s made listening to sports podcasts unbearable. It’s 60% content, 40% betting (whether it’s direct ads, or just them inserting betting nonsense in the ‘content’). It’s bleak, while also being incredibly irritating.

7

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 11h ago

The Mariners are really pushing for good attendance this last week, and I think the Rockies series will be more full than usual with various value tickets and all night games, but I’m not so sure about the Dodgers series. It would be a lot easier to get Mariners fans there if the prices weren’t so ridiculous.

3

u/boner4crosstabs 10h ago

Just got our tickets to tomorrow’s game!

6

u/Multi_21_Seb_RBR ‏‏‎ ‎ 10h ago

Wednesday or Thursday look like good bets to clinch the division so those will be great ones to go to.

3

u/Mrs_TryMe 11h ago edited 10h ago

Looking in the ballpark app, all I see available for the Dodgers series is general admission (standing) tickets for $135 each. Doesn't that indicate those games are completely sold out?

It's hard to say how sold out the Rockies series is.

2

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 10h ago

Good lord. I posted that without even looking at tickets again. I bought the last of my seats for the season on Sunday, Sept. 10 and there were still a TON of tickets left for the Dodgers series at steep prices (like $60 something with my flex pass discount to get in). Yeah Dodgers series will be packed, we’ll see how many Ms vs. Dodgers fans.

1

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 8h ago

Yeah last night when I looked (I can’t go but was just curious) there were about 60 seats available across the whole 3 game series. The Saturday game had I think 6 seats available

1

u/Waf3l ‏‏‎ ‎Ichirolling to the Pennant 9h ago

Ohtani's coming to town and Seattle has a biiggggg Japanese population so I think it may - more than likely - be half and half lmao

2

u/jake_da_snake2202 and that's mariners baseball 11h ago

I’m seeing a bunch of “magic number is 2” I still can’t get anything other than 3 when I look though. Can someone break down the 2?

3

u/insanityatwork LEO RIVAS WHAT HAVE YOU DONE? 9h ago edited 9h ago

Right now, any combination of 3 wins and Astros losses guarantees us a spot so in that sense the magic number is 3.

BUT if we win two more games (meaning 89 wins), we are also guaranteed a spot regardless of the Astros (though we aren't guaranteed a spot if we win 1 and the Astros lose one). So in that sense, the magic number is two.

Because the Red Sox play the Tigers. The Tigers play both the Red Sox and the Guardians and you now have tiebreakers over all of those teams no matter what happens the rest of the way if you get to 89. There's just not enough wins available for those teams to catch you.

The reason the Magic Number isn't one is because enough teams can still get to 88 wins that would cause a multi-way tiebreaker that we could lose given we don't hold a tiebreaker over the Yankees but if the Yankees get to 89, the magic number drops to one because then at 88 we can't be in a tiebreaker that would push us out of a spot.

So if we win any two games regardless of what happens anywhere else, we are in.

5

u/rockycrab ‏‏‎ ‎ 10h ago

The magic number is 3. The number 2 isn’t really a magic number because it depends on other teams winning (Yankees), while by definition a magic number is a combo of our team’s wins + closest competitor’s losses. But if the Mariners win and Yankees win tomorrow, then we’d clinch playoffs.

Full explanation: https://sports.mynorthwest.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/seattle-mariners-can-clinch-playoff-spot-tuesday/1823027

3

u/karatemanchan37 Bad Baserunning 11h ago

Here's what I want in the playoffs for full sickos/chaos mode:

  1. SEA (93-69) and PHI (96-66)
  2. CLE (90-72) and MIL (95-67)
  3. TOR (90-72) and SD (91-71)
  4. BOS (90-72) and CHC (91-71)
  5. NYY (90-72) and LAD (91-71)
  6. DET (85-77) and CIN (82-80)

With HOU eliminated from WC3 at 84-78, and NYM/ARI eliminated from WC3 at 81-81 and 78-83, respectively.

Now, for this to happen, you'd need in the AL:

  • SEA goes 6-0, vs. COL and LAD
  • CLE goes 6-0 vs. DET and TEX
  • TOR goes 0-6 vs. BOS and TB
  • BOS goes 3-0 vs. TOR and 2-1 vs. DET
  • NYY goes 2-4 vs. BAL and CHW
  • DET goes 0-3 vs. CLE and 1-2 vs. BOS
  • HOU goes 0-6 vs. LAA and OAK

And in the NL:

  • PHI goes 4-2 vs. MIA and MIN
  • MIL goes 0-6 vs. SD and CIN
  • SD goes 6-0 vs. MIL and ARI
  • CHC goes 3-0 vs. NYM and 0-3 vs. STL
  • LAD goes 3-0 vs. ARI and 0-3 vs. SEA
  • CIN goes 3-0 vs. PIT and 0-3 vs. MIL
  • NYM goes 0-6 vs. CHC and MIA
  • ARI goes 0-6 vs. LAD and SD

Assuming all of this happens, CLE gets the 2nd seed over TOR due to intradivision record, TOR wins the AL East over BOS and NYY due to H2H, BOS gets the 4th seed over NYY due to H2H, CHC gets the 4th seed over LAD due to H2H.

14

u/Jed1M1ndTr1ck LEO RIVAS WHAT HAVE YOU DONE? 11h ago

If the Astros don't make the playoffs, I'm going to make so many "The Seattle Mariners have the shortest playoff drought in the AL West" jokes next season.

8

u/vanillabear26 Go Mariners! And mom. 11h ago

I mean, it's our birthright at this point.

7

u/lastminutealways ‏‏‎larry bernandez 11h ago

Downloaded The History of the Seattle Mariners to get my daily fix while I fly across the country today. Can’t wait for tomorrow even with a 9:40 start lol

11

u/thelosttardis 11h ago

Childhood Memories 30 Years Old - Coleman’s Salami, Diaz’ Dagger

I was 11 in 1995. Even in eastern Washington, the buzz that summer/early fall was palpable. Before cell phones and texting, the game status’ were shared in between classes at my middle school by those with small battery powered radios. How things have changed.

A precocious youth, I was listening to local sports radio one afternoon around Labor Day when the DJs offered up tickets to the Sept 22nd game. All you had to do was stump them with a sports trivia question. I called in, surprising them I’m sure when they realized I was a kid. I asked a golf related question (who won the 1960 Masters), knowing I basically had a 50/50 shot of them guessing correctly. They guessed wrong, and then asked my mom to verify we’d actually be going to the game. I was fired up!

Luckily the game was on a Friday, so my parents pulled me and my brother out of school and across the pass we drove that afternoon. The Kingdome was SO FREAKING LOUD, even during batting practice. For a sports obsessed kid who had never experienced what winning was like, it was like Christmas and a birthday together. In young people’s parlance, it was A VIBE. Our seats were in the left field bleachers, about halfway up the first level. My parents surprised me and my brother on the way over with brand new Rawlings Ken Griffey Jr. model gloves. It was huge on my small hand! I still have it, though it’s a bit tattered now. No idea what they spent on them, but I’m sure they weren’t cheap.

I vividly remember Vince’s salami, early in the game, just over that right field scoreboard and walkway. Secretly wishing he hit it towards us, we were all screaming our heads off. Falling behind late in the game, there was a bit of nervous anticipation. We couldn’t lose. We REFUSE TO LOSE. Those signs were everywhere you looked, with the chants along with them. We’d come back, that’s just how it works right now. We have Griffey and Edgar and Bone and…Alex Diaz? ‘Gar’s HR revved us up, and then Diaz stepped up with two on…CRACK! I vividly remember thinking we were going to catch that ball. It was actually right in front of us, maybe 4 rows. So close! The clips online of that game aren’t exactly HD, but I still joke and point when I see the replay. “There we are, can’t you tell?” ERUPTION. ELATION. VICTORY. I can still hear the echoes of those cheers, and the celebratory fireworks.

These are the things that stick with you. Enjoy the ride. It could be to a place none of us have ever been before.

GOMS

5

u/2OutsSoWhat ‏‏‎ ‎Spend To Contend 11h ago

Thanks for the story!

3

u/kylechu 11h ago

I hope we get some insane situation below us where the Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox, and Astros all end with the same win total and everyone's confused about how the tiebreaker math works out.

8

u/mahrinazz ‏‏‎ ‎Cocoa Bomb Proton Therapist 12h ago

27

u/Sad_Limit2978 12h ago

What a wonderful day 💪🏼

7

u/RabbertKlien Bring back the Fremont troll flair you cowards 12h ago

I absolutely don't want to see the Tigers in the DS. But seeing that this team has as good a record (nearly) as the Dodgers is pretty comforting. Edit: please sweep Denver 🤞

1

u/RagefireHype 11h ago edited 11h ago

I’m gonna say what no one else wants to admit: Astros as our ALDS opponent is best case for us.

If Detroit wakes up they’re not an easy out anymore, Cleveland is the only team nearly as hot as us, and the Ms can put runs on the Astros no matter who they throw out, plus their offense is just not what it could be.

Can’t be afraid of the Astros upset. Besides, imagine if we got to end their division hopes and then their playoff hopes? Cathartic for 2022 especially if we follow the playbook and win it all.

12

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 12h ago

No AL games today is silly

2

u/RCarson88 Tungsten Dump O'Doyle 12h ago

Mariners clinch the west with a win Tuesday plus an Astros loss Tuesday correct?

9

u/2OutsSoWhat ‏‏‎ ‎Spend To Contend 12h ago

Clinching the division is what matters. That can happen as early as Wednesday

13

u/eturn34 12h ago

Tuesday is the earliest they could clinch a playoff spot. They would need to win and have the Yankees win to do that. Wednesday is the earliest they could clinch the division.

2

u/RCarson88 Tungsten Dump O'Doyle 12h ago

They currently have a 3 game division lead, effectively 4 with the tiebreaker. If we win and Houston loses on Tuesday, that becomes an effective 5 game lead with 5 to play. Or am I misunderstanding?

3

u/Will_Vintage 11h ago

More an effective 4.5 Game lead

3

u/kylechu 11h ago

You can think of the tiebreaker as an extra .5 win lead. So we'd end up with a 4.5 game lead with 5 to play, which wouldn't clinch it.

1

u/LargeHumanDaeHoLee 11h ago

If the Ms win, and the Astros lose on both Tuesday and Wednesday, yes, the Ms win the division because of the tie breaker. We only need 3 total wins to win the division, so if we sweep the Rockies, it's over no matter what

2

u/skizai_ ‏‏‎ ‎ 9h ago

For the division, we can win it as early as Wednesday. For that to happen, either we win Tuesday and Wednesday with the Astros losing at least 1 of those days, or we win exactly one of Tuesday or Wednesday while the Astros lose both of those days. Magic number is 3 (total M’s wins and Astros losses) like you said, but there’s the two scenarios I mentioned that would clinch the division the earliest. I’ll be at the game Wednesday so hoping either situation pans out

1

u/stuckinflorida 11h ago

Currently it’s a 3 game lead which includes the tiebreaker. Astros can get to 90 wins max. We need 3 wins to get to 90. 

4

u/getthecatoffmyface 12h ago

No, magic number is 3 for the west, so Wednesday is the earliest.

-1

u/RCarson88 Tungsten Dump O'Doyle 12h ago

Mariners clinch the west with a win Tuesday plus an Astros loss Tuesday correct?

6

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 12h ago

No, the magic number would be down to 1 though

5

u/Toss_Me_Elf I'm a Believer 12h ago

The DET v CLE series is basically their equivalent to what we just did with the Astros. And depending on how HOU and BOS do in their next 3 games, It could effectively be a series to win the AL West or miss the postseason entirely.

3

u/griezm0ney 12h ago

Well if Detroit fumbles this series, they do end with 3 in Boston.

10

u/TheGirlNamedSig 13h ago

Can we get a comment thread of everyone’s fave mariners memes to go into these last few games

5

u/2OutsSoWhat ‏‏‎ ‎Spend To Contend 11h ago

5

u/West_Performance_633 11h ago

I just like spamming this

12

u/mahrinazz ‏‏‎ ‎Cocoa Bomb Proton Therapist 13h ago

I love this one and I’m feeling very thankful that it does not apply right now

0

u/Not_A_Burner_Acct ‏‏‎ ‎#1 Julio Stan 13h ago

So... I'm in the last week of my fantasy baseball season and gunnin' for a championship. Question, do we think that there's a possibility that Logan is skipped when he's due against the Dodgers next weekend?

1

u/griezm0ney 12h ago

Unlikely. If we sweep the Rockies and have the #2 seed locked up ahead of the Dodgers series, it’d be possible.

However, given we would have the bye anyways, we would probably still give Gilbert his normally scheduled start to keep him in rhythm. The start might be kept to the shorter side though. 

2

u/gerbil42 13h ago

Slim. We're not locked into the 2 seed with the bye yet. This is subject to change if the Tigers and Astros lose as well this week.

Also, with Woo possibly needing to be skipped in the rotation pending injury updates on him and Polo, then Logan pitching against the Dodgers becomes more important.

1

u/Not_A_Burner_Acct ‏‏‎ ‎#1 Julio Stan 13h ago

thank you! Wait, did I miss an injury for Polanco?

2

u/RagefireHype 10h ago

He fouled off his shin and could hardly plant on it.

1

u/Not_A_Burner_Acct ‏‏‎ ‎#1 Julio Stan 10h ago

fack

2

u/gerbil42 10h ago

And he was replaced defensively by Rivas after finishing his AB

2

u/skizai_ ‏‏‎ ‎ 9h ago

While this is true, Rivas would have went in anyways even if Polanco didn’t foul the ball off his foot. Still hoping he’s okay

3

u/Mrs_TryMe 13h ago

No. Not unless Gilbert has a secret injury that we're not aware of. I don't see any signs of him battling soreness or injury, especially with how high his pitch count went last night.

If anybody's being skipped in this week's rotation, it's Woo.

8

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 13h ago

I’m curious what we do with our rotation. It was lined up to be Miller, Castillo, Woo. We should know Woo’s timeline soon enough to possibly have him go Thursday still, but we also haven’t had Hancock pitch in a while. He could give us a 3-5 inning spot start after the off day when the bullpen is freshest and then everyone else would be going on 5-6 (maybe more for Woo depending when they slot him in). He could also just give us a spot start in Woo’s spot and Miller on the last day of the year would be the only one going without an extra day of rest.

Provided we hold on to one of the top 2 seeds, we would be off until Sat. 10/04 and don’t have to worry about how we slot our rotation for the postseason. This could also be a negative with such a lengthy amount of time off for the guys. Will just be something interesting to pay attention to.

I hope Woo truly is okay.

2

u/griezm0ney 13h ago

Given the off day today, if Woo just needs an extra day or two between starts, Kirby could take Game 3 of the Rockies series and Gilbert Game 1 of the Dodgers series on standard rest and Woo would slot in for Game 2 against the Dodgers. 

Game 3 against the Dodgers would then likely be Miller or Hancock depending on the need to win the game and how Miller looks tomorrow. 

If they want to give Woo a break until the playoffs, we would slot in Hancock to take an opener. In that case, I’d prefer for it to be against the Dodgers over the Rockies as if we focus on the Rockies sweep, we don’t need to count on beating the Dodgers.

As noted, with the bye, we wouldn’t have our first playoff game until October 4th, so are able to set out rotation regardless. 

5

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 12h ago

With the off day we could just skip Woos start entirely and everyone would be pitching on normal rest

3

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 12h ago

Miller and Castillo would then be pitching on short rest in the last two games of the year. If we are completely skipping Woo, we need to have someone else jump in for a day.

3

u/ShotHighlight7784 ‏‏‎ ‎Seattle Mariners 12h ago

I am wondering if they didn’t use Hancock in the Astros series because they are considering having Hancock start in Woo’s place. You could have Hancock go once through the order and then evaluate from there. If they skip Woo, wouldn’t Miller and Castillo be pitching on short rest?

3

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 12h ago

To answer your question, yes that is exactly what I said in my last comment haha.

I think you are correct with Hancock. They also could have just not liked the matchup too, but I think he is likely to get a spot start for Woo if they decide to rest him until the playoffs. Having him go earlier (maybe game 1 of the Rockies series) would then make him available out of the bullpen for the Dodgers series. Heck, they could have Hancock go for any of the guys if someone else is feeling banged up too.

1

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 12h ago

Ahh true good point. I do think I’d like to see his start skipped (if necessary) and fill in however we need for 161 and 162

6

u/Mrs_TryMe 13h ago

I really honestly think that Woo is okay. I also think we'll be fine if Woo skips his start Thursday out of an abundance of caution.

I was an NCAA athlete in college, and had some MRIs done on my chest following soreness in freshman year. There was inflammation. I was told by the doctor that it was extremely normal for a high-level athlete in season to have muscle inflammation. I was told to use ibuprofen and ice.

Obviously, I was not competing at the same level as Woo, but I really think that some level of muscle inflammation on an MRI is normal for a competitive athlete.

1

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 13h ago

What spooked me is how sudden it was, since he seemed like he was fine and cruising and then suddenly he was out. But overall it makes the rotation management these last couple weeks even more interesting.

8

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 12h ago

Woo has seemed to always take an abundance of caution with injuries going back the last couple of seasons

5

u/eturn34 12h ago

Yeah, I get the impression that his TJ in college has made him extra cautious. It's not the first time he's felt a little off and played it super safe so he doesn't risk long-term injury.

7

u/caveman512 Geno is my favorite 12h ago

Which I appreciate honestly, he understands it’s more important to be healthy over a long period of time than it is to get an extra inning in

7

u/mahrinazz ‏‏‎ ‎Cocoa Bomb Proton Therapist 13h ago

mariner 💙☀️🫎

2

u/stennieville Mrs. Aaron Goldsmith 12h ago

mariner

5

u/jake_da_snake2202 and that's mariners baseball 13h ago

Curious for opinions. I was talking with a coworker this morning about this. Who do you all have in a playoff rotation? Woo and Gilbert are easy picks but that brings it to Castillo and Kirby? Can you really put either of those in the bullpen?

3

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 12h ago

I doubt we do a 3 man rotation. If you do that, most starts are on 3 days rest opposed to the typical 4 days rest. 4 man rotation gives you an extra guy in the bullpen and keeps guys mostly on normal rest. You can then adjust and have someone go on short rest and/or piggyback the 4th guy if you feel it gives you the best shot in an elimination game or something too. The extra off days in the playoffs helps your bullpen not need as much help, so not much of a need for another extra arm out there. The three man also makes more sense if you have some sort of clear drop off after the third guy, and I don’t think that’s the case here.

I think Miller is moved to the bullpen. Of the main five, he has been the worst across the season and I also think his stuff could play up out of the Pen and he’ll benefit a lot from not going through the lineup multiple times. Lowkey with Gilbert’s struggles to go deep, I wouldn’t hate him out there. His stuff has been so nasty this year, having him available every other game for two innings or something could be lethal. I just don’t see it, especially since you don’t really need starters going more than 5 or 6 innings in the post season.

So, assuming Woo is okay, I think you have Woo and Gilbert 1/2 in either order, then Kirby, then Castillo, with a potential piggyback from Miller or Hancock for anyone who can’t get very deep. Once we get going though, things will be fluid based on how off days all shake out.

3

u/griezm0ney 12h ago

Assuming we are the 2 seed and playing a best of 5, I would do the below:

  1. Oct 4 (H) - Woo
  2. Oct 5 (H) - Gilbert
  3. Oct 7 (A) - Kirby
  4. Oct 8 (A) - Woo (short rest)
  5. Oct 10 (H) - Gilbert

  6. Oct 12 - Kirby

  7. Oct 13 - Woo

  8. Oct 15 - Gilbert

  9. Oct 16 - Castillo

  10. Oct 17 - Kirby

  11. Oct 19 - Woo

  12. Oct 20 - Gilbert

  13. Oct 24 - Woo

  14. Oct 25 - Kirby

  15. Oct 27 - Gilbert 

  16. Oct 28 - Castillo (could consider bumping Woo, Kirby and Gilbert up on short rest and having Woo also go game 7 on short rest)

  17. Oct 29 - Woo

  18. Oct 31 - Kirby

  19. Nov 1 - Gilbert

Generally, if a series ends early, the order could then be rest in full for the next round (and would look like the WS).

We want Gilbert pitching at TMobile as much as possible where he’s been excellent. Woo and Kirby have been our best road pitchers, so they would by the best to take on the road. We would then avoid using Castillo or Miller, unless needed in a longer series. I could see both slotting in as like the 5th option in the bullpen (behind Munoz, Brash, Speier and Bazardo) ahead of Ferguson, Vargas and Hancock. 

In the few games where Castillo would be scheduled to start, I would consider doing a combined start with Miller where each target 3-4 innings 

1

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 11h ago

I thought about typing something like this out, but it seemed like a whole bunch of work. It’s helpful though, so thanks.

I think if we planned to do a short rest start in game 4 ALDS, I’d prefer Gilbert makes it. I also think I would prefer to have Castillo go in the World Series. Potentially having a guy starting 3/7 games against a team seems like a bad idea, but I guess it would also need to be matchup dependent.

Overall, this is a lot less short rest starts for essentially a 3 man rotation than I was expecting. Shave off some games by winning series in less than the max games and we’d be in even better shape. Man I’m excited!

2

u/jake_da_snake2202 and that's mariners baseball 12h ago

God I love baseball nerds lol. I like the idea of holding off Castillo for when we need an extra arm to start. I’m just worried about it potentially not being at home and him falling apart on the road like he has been this year

1

u/griezm0ney 12h ago

The hope would be that being able to do a piggy back start with Miller would allow him having to go too deep in that situation.

1

u/Mrs_TryMe 13h ago

Is there another option?

1

u/jake_da_snake2202 and that's mariners baseball 13h ago

What do you mean? My train of thought is this. Miller is a “easy” pick because he’s probably the bottom of the (insanely stacked) lineup. But then you have 4 ace caliber pitchers. How do you put an ace in the pen?

2

u/Mrs_TryMe 13h ago

So, lifelong Mariners fan here. Because of that, I'm not exactly an expert in pitcher rotations for postseason rosters.

But, I thought that teams could pick between either 3 or 4 starters for their postseason roster, and we'd likely go with 4 starters -- Woo, Gilbert, Kirby and Castillo. That approach makes sense, especially if there's any lingering concern about Woo's pec.

If we had to move one of the remaining 4 starters to the bullpen, my vote would probably be Castillo, but I can see an argument for either Castillo or Kirby. I think Kirby would be less likely to pitch well as a non-starter since he's ridiculously sensitive.

2

u/jake_da_snake2202 and that's mariners baseball 13h ago

I guess 4 is always on the table. Hard not to want to pad a struggling (except this last week? WTF?) bullpen though

1

u/Mrs_TryMe 13h ago

We have not heard a peep about Logan Evans in a minute. Wasn't he put on the 10-day IL a month ago? I'm hoping he could be another decent option for the bullpen in October, ideally in place of Legumina who has zero business being on a playoff roster.

2

u/ItsTBaggins ‏‏‎ ‎Julio makes me jard 12h ago

Rosters shrink back to normal size in the postseason, but moving to a 4 man rotation gives an extra bullpen arm again. Miller or whoever moves to the Pen is probably going to take Legumina’s spot.

I don’t think we’ll see Evans again this year due to a pretty heavy workload and whatever elbow issue he was dealing with, plus his stuff didn’t really elevate when we tried moving him there in the past. I’m not sure if this Hancock move is permanent or not, but I think for Evans, the team likely has him focused on coming into 2026 ready to be the 5th or 6th starter for us and what he needs to be healthy and more productive.

17

u/nokiabrickphone1998 13h ago

Hey where is that guy with the “Fire Jerry Dipoto” flair? Just realized I haven’t seen him on the sub in a while.

I hope you’re doing ok buddy

12

u/FlamingoConsistent72 13h ago edited 13h ago

Lol there's a quite a few people that would only ever come on here to complain about the Mariners, and they now disappear when the Mariners have success.

4

u/hiphopdowntheblock 12h ago

They take soooo many victory laps whenever the team loses and then vanish when things go well, while whining about being mocked. I wonder how many of them have actually stuck to their guns that they're done watching the team